- Market-rate completions are on pace for about 314,000 units in 2026, down from a near-588,000 peak in 2024 and below the 363,000 ten-year average.
- Absorption is tracking about 376,000 units, balancing demand and supply, and rents held steady month over month in August and September after falling a year earlier.
- Class B rents are growing about 1%, a sign the recovery is spreading beyond Class A, but Class C remains under pressure and weaker wage growth and immigration could weigh on 2027.
Slower construction, more than stronger demand, helped the U.S. apartment market turn a corner in Q3, RealPage says.
Roughly 314,000 new market-rate units are on track for 2026, the first year since 2022 to come in under the long-run norm.
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The Supply Wave Recedes
Deliveries crested at close to 588,000 units in 2024, compared with a typical 363,000 over the past decade. The count slipped to about 403,000 in 2025.
This year’s expected 314,000 ends a run of three above-average years.
Demand Held Up
Renters are on pace to absorb about 376,000 units, enough to bring demand and supply roughly level.
Rents reflect it. Monthly changes were flat in August and September, versus drops in those months a year ago. Class B pricing is up around 1%, suggesting gains are no longer limited to Class A.
Zoom Out
CRE Daily earlier reported that apartment demand was nearing supply, with rents turning positive at 0.9%.
Risks Remain
RealPage warns the rebound is uneven and not guaranteed. Class C is still under pressure, and as inflation returns, real wage growth is slipping.
A steep fall in immigration could also hurt demand in 2027.
Why It Matters
Because falling supply rather than hot demand is behind the turn, rent growth hinges on builders staying restrained.
RealPage’s forecast, covered by CRE Daily, calls for 2.4% rent growth from Q4 2026 through Q3 2027, with nine of 50 metros around 3%.
What’s Next
RealPage’s Market Intelligence: U.S. 3Q26 Recap webcast covers the forecasts. Watch whether flat monthly rents persist through year-end.
