- October’s CMBS hard maturity cohort totals $4.70B across 144 loan pieces, up from $2.74B in September, per Trepp, with 27.74% of the balance severely impaired on a debt yield under 6.0%.
- Two single-borrower loans, a national apartment portfolio at $569.2M and a $302.2M Honolulu resort, hold most of that impairment, yet both are paying as agreed and neither is with special servicers.
- Delinquent balance dropped to $42.7M while special servicing rose to $914.5M, and the five largest maturities now make up 43.03% of the cohort.
This October’s CMBS hard maturity cohort totals $4.70B across 144 loan pieces, up from September’s $2.74B, according to Trepp.
The pieces come from 118 whole loans. The share of balance with a severely impaired debt yield, below 6.0%, held near 27.74%, versus 26.96% in September, but the risk now sits in different property types.
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Two Loans Drive the Impairment
Two single-asset, single-borrower loans together hold two-thirds of the severely impaired balance, or 66.79%. One is a national multifamily portfolio originated in 2021, with $569.2M outstanding and a 5.87% debt yield. The other is a $302.2M Honolulu resort loan at 5.52%.
Both are paying as agreed, and neither is with a special servicer. Of the $1.30B due with a debt yield under 6.0%, 97.00% is performing today.
Sector Mix Flips Again
By balance, office is largest at $1.27B, or 27.03% of the cohort, followed by retail at $1.06B, multifamily at $877.55M, industrial at $681.41M and hospitality at $549.95M.
Among loans with a debt yield under 6.0%, multifamily now holds 51.86% and hospitality 31.90%, against office at 15.32% and retail at 0.33%. Retail topped the list in September at 56.96%.
Multifamily looks weakest, with 77.10% of its maturing balance under each of the 8.0% and 6.0% thresholds. Across the cohort, 46.91% sits below 8.0%. Industrial is cleanest, with 1.24% under that line and 1.76% in special servicing.
Special Servicing Spreads Out
In all, 19.44% of the cohort sits with special servicers before maturity. Office held 74.94% of that balance in September, but its share dropped to 29.71% this month, while retail holds 29.23% and multifamily 22.96%.
Retail shows that the two measures differ. It has almost nothing below a 6.0% debt yield, yet 25.15% of its balance is with special servicers. Office has 56.85% under 8.0% but only 15.72% under 6.0%, so a paydown could clear many of those loans.
Concentration Rises
The five largest maturities total $2.02B, or 43.03% of the cohort, versus 37.00% in September. Three are floating-rate single-borrower loans written in 2021 whose extension options are running out, and all five are paying as agreed.
Non-performing balance dropped to $42.7M from $98.7M, or 0.91% of the cohort from 3.60%. Special servicing rose to $914.5M from $719.5M but slipped to 19.44% of the cohort from 26.22%.
Why It Matters
Trepp says the bigger forward signal is $1.27B of severely impaired debt that is current but approaching maturity. Its earlier playbook counted $76.6B of hard maturities due in 2026, with 39% in the fourth quarter and 36% at a debt yield of 8% or less.
The pressure is also visible in other markets, as CRE Daily reported on the NYC maturity wall and on multifamily distress.
What’s Next
Trepp says summaries for the largest positions will be published in its client newsletter. Watch how the two large SASB loans resolve at maturity, since they hold most of the cohort’s impairment.
