- 139 New York City commercial mortgages of $5M or more mature between October 2026 and October 2027, totaling $8.70B, with the GM Building’s $2.30B loan making up 26% of the total.
- Banks hold 66% of the maturing dollars, led by Morgan Stanley Bank, while Flagstar has the most loans at 25 even as it shrinks its New York commercial real estate book.
- Borrowers holding a median 3.88% rate face refinancing after a Fed hike and a 10-year Treasury above 5%, and the stated total is only a floor for what comes due.
Commercial borrowers in New York City face $8.70B in loan maturities over the next 12 months, according to Circlemark.
The analysis counts 139 commercial mortgages of $5M or more with stated maturities between Oct. 2, 2026, and Oct. 1, 2027. One loan, the GM Building’s $2.30B mortgage, represents 26% of the total.
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Banks Hold the Bulk of the Debt
Banks originated 82 of the loans, worth $5.75B, or 66% of the maturing dollars. CMBS conduits account for 19 loans and $1.48B (17%), life companies for 11 loans and $609.2M (7%), and debt funds for 11 loans and $447.4M (5%).
Morgan Stanley Bank leads by dollars with $2.95B across three loans, driven by the GM Building mortgage. Natixis Real Estate Capital follows with $588.6M across two loans, then Barclays Bank with $504.8M across four and Wells Fargo Bank with $445.7M across four.
Flagstar Is Pulling Back
Flagstar Bank, formerly New York Community Bank, has the most maturing loans at 25, but a median size of just $7.6M and $252.9M in total. Across the city it holds 1,614 active loans of $5M or more worth $23.10B, though only 197 state a maturity.
The bank’s commercial real estate book shrank from $50.6B at the end of 2023 to $38.3B at the end of 2025, and $1.1B of multifamily and commercial loans paid off at par in the second quarter of 2026 alone. Rent-stabilized originations fell from $3.9B in 2019 to $58M in 2025.
CEO Joseph Otting has said new originations will focus on “Michigan, California and Florida.”
Office and 2017 Vintages Dominate
Office makes up 58% of the maturing dollars, and Manhattan accounts for 90%. Of the 139 loans, 67 were originated in 2017, representing $6.34B of the $8.70B total.
By count, multifamily leads with 38 loans worth $829.4M, followed by mixed-use with 34 loans.
Refinancing at Higher Rates
Of the 105 loans with a stated rate, the median is 3.88%, and three of four sit at 4.37% or lower. Borrowers now refinance after the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16, with the 10-year Treasury crossing 5%, its highest level since 2007.
The New York figures sit alongside the national CMBS maturity wall, where higher rates are also pressuring borrowers.
Why It Matters
The stated wall is a floor. Circlemark’s model places 2,664 loans in the next 12 months, but most do not state a maturity date: the $8.70B in stated maturities compares with $76.84B inferred by the model.
That leaves office loan maturities and other exposures harder to size than the public record suggests.
An additional 77 loans totaling $2.55B have already passed maturity with no satisfaction or discharge recorded, led by Natixis ($790M across two loans), Flagstar ($535.3M across 30) and Prudential Insurance ($347M across four). Circlemark notes that its tables name the originator, not necessarily the current holder.
What’s Next
The Rent Guidelines Board’s freeze took effect Oct. 1, setting a 0% increase on one- and two-year renewals through September 2027. Lending against buildings that are at least half rent-stabilized has already contracted, from $27.6B across more than 3,700 deals in 2019 to $11.3B across roughly 1,400 deals in 2025.
With Flagstar redirecting new originations elsewhere, watch how borrowers with 2017-vintage loans refinance as maturities arrive.
