- BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino estimates private CRE debt grew 80% to 132% from 2019 to 2025, with a central case of 100%, meaning it roughly doubled.
- The Federal Reserve now counts private credit in its Financial Accounts, showing about $1.5 trillion in loans at year-end 2025, though it does not break out commercial real estate.
- Severino sees more capital sources as a plus for matching money to deals, but warns that thin transparency and missing bank-style capital rules raise the risk of redemption runs.
Private lending against commercial real estate has likely doubled since 2019, GlobeSt reports, citing BGO chief economist Ryan Severino.
His low, central and upper estimates put growth from 2019 to 2025 at 80%, 100% and 132%.
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A Rebalanced Credit Market
Banks and insurers anchored CRE credit for decades, and securitization arrived in the 1990s. Private capital worked quietly in the background.
That has changed. Severino says private capital has outpaced every one of those pools, and much of it flows through CRE investment funds. We saw the competition in our own coverage: loan originations are up 40% at banks and 35% at debt funds this year.
The Fed Puts a Number on It
Starting with its September 2026 release, the Federal Reserve folded private credit into its Financial Accounts, creating new sectors for private credit funds, plus tables for their loans and fund shares.
At year-end 2025, covered vehicles held roughly $1.5 trillion of private-credit loans, Severino wrote on LinkedIn. U.S. nonfinancial companies owe about $1.3 trillion, about six percent of what they owe, up from roughly 1% in 2012.
The Fed does not isolate commercial real estate, so Severino modeled his own scenarios for the CRE slice.
More Lenders, Better Fit
Severino sees real upside. Extra sources of capital can better align funding with deal needs, even if returns do not rise.
Insurers still play too. New York Life recently lent $480 million to Continental Properties, and insurance-backed capital is competing with banks and debt funds.
Transparency Is the Catch
Investors who cannot see inside private credit vehicles can react fast, which fueled redemption runs at several private credit firms in recent years. Private lenders also lack the capital rules that steady traditional lenders.
Severino says those risks do not cancel the benefits, but they set the terms.
Why It Matters
Borrowers have more places to go, which helps when banks pull back. The flip side is a lending base that is harder to monitor.
What’s Next
The Fed’s new tables give analysts a baseline for private credit overall. A CRE-specific breakout is the missing piece.
