- Broker Bob Knakal projects New York City development site sales volume will rise more than 30% in 2026 from 2025, based on activity his firm is tracking, with official statistics still to come.
- A Chelsea site drew more than 80 offers, the most for one development site since 2015, at pricing roughly 15% above the high end of expectations, as outer-borough developers target Manhattan.
- Receptive City Planning staff and a land-value gap near 50% between sites with and without affordability requirements mean zoning and affordability terms now drive value as much as price.
New York City development site sales could rise more than 30% this year, writes Bob Knakal, who founded BK Real Estate Advisors and serves as its chairman and CEO, in a Commercial Observer column.
The number is Knakal’s projection from deals his team is tracking, measured against 2025. He says hard statistics are coming soon.
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The Chelsea Test
Knakal points to a Chelsea development site his firm is marketing. It has pulled in 80-plus offers, the most for any one site since 2015.
Pricing is running about 15% above the firm’s original high-end expectations, even with construction, financing and regulatory costs still weighing on projects.
Outer-Borough Developers Come to Manhattan
More established Brooklyn, Queens and Bronx developers are bidding on smaller Manhattan sites to build their first projects there, Knakal says. They bring capital and occasionally a different approach to underwriting than traditional Manhattan builders.
Those boroughs are also where developers are boxing in projects at 99 units to dodge wage rules, per our Oct. 19 look at 485x data. The Bronx led 152 newly registered projects with 67, ahead of Brooklyn with 51 and Queens with 28.
Brooklyn’s condo market is shrinking in a different way. Brooklyn condo developers filed one project of 50 or more units in 2026, against five in 2025, Marketproof found. Knakal does not say what is pulling builders toward Manhattan.
Rezone First, Sell Later
Knakal sees City Planning as unusually open to rezonings, with the extra density it may consider running well above what his team expected.
That has his firm telling some owners not to sell right away. A rezoning could raise a site’s value before it trades, though he warns it is never guaranteed and takes time and money.
Affordability Sets the Price
More buildable area does not automatically mean more value. In certain neighborhoods, land values differ by close to 50% between sites carrying affordability mandates and sites free of them.
Evaluating a rezoning, Knakal says, means knowing what can be built, which affordability obligations apply and how the finished project would perform.
Why It Matters
Knakal argues that information is losing value in investment sales while judgment gains it. His firm now leans on phone calls and texts over emailed offering memos, and runs several buyers through contract talks at once to get stronger deposits and fewer contingencies.
Knakal has made a version of this case before. On the No Cap podcast in February 2025, the Massey Knakal co-founder, who has sold more than 2,300 buildings, said there is no such thing as an off-market deal, because showing a property to even one buyer puts it on the market. His call for the broadest possible exposure and competing bids in this column follows from that view.
Keep in mind this is a broker’s view, and the volume figure is preliminary. Still, 80 offers on one site points to deep demand for well-located land.
What’s Next
Watch for the official 2026 sales totals and the next rezoning proposals out of City Planning. State lawmakers also face pressure in January to revisit 485x, which shapes how many units developers will build on these sites.
