America’s Growth Map Is Moving Outward

Exurbs are stealing the spotlight as new Census data shows buyers flocking to master-planned communities outside major metros.

Nina Dale
May 18, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning. America’s growth boom is moving farther out. New Census data shows buyers and renters flocking to fast-growing exurbs and master-planned communities surrounding major metros like Dallas, Phoenix, and Charlotte.

🎙️This Week on No Cap: Michael Van Der Poel, Founding Partner at ACRE, breaks down how a post-GFC workforce housing thesis grew into a global platform spanning the US, Europe, and Asia. (Thanks to our podcast sponsor, Henry)

CRE Trivia 🧠

Which hospitality entrepreneur got his start in 1927 by opening a nine-stool A&W root beer stand in Washington, D.C., before going on to build one of the world’s largest hotel empires?

(Answer at the bottom of the newsletter)

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH BAM CAPITAL

32.19% Historic Net IRR. See the Strategy Behind It.

As an accredited investor, you've likely outgrown standard investment vehicles. BAM Capital was founded by investors, for investors — focused on expert-led diversification, tax efficiency, and consistent return potential.

Our Blueprint outlines exactly how we identify undervalued assets, execute value-add renovations, and exit with maximum profitability potential. It's a look under the hood of a strategy built for wealth preservation and growth.

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

7,408.50

Pct Chg:
-1.24%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

824.22

Pct Chg:
-1.56%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.599%

Pct Chg:
+0.14

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

3.64%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 5/15/2026 market close.

Next Frontier

America’s Growth Map Is Moving Outward

The hottest housing markets in America aren’t downtown—they’re miles beyond the suburbs, where exurban boomtowns are redefining population growth.

Exburban explosion: New Census Bureau data show Fulshear, Texas—35 miles west of Houston—was the fastest-growing U.S. city with more than 50,000 residents between 2020 and mid-2025, surging from roughly 17,000 to 64,630. Nearby Celina, north of Dallas, added nearly 13,000 residents in one year, pushing its population above 64,400.

Texas keeps dominating: The DFW metro continues sprawling outward as buyers chase affordability and master-planned communities. Outer-ring cities like Celina and Fort Worth are booming even as Dallas posted a slight population decline. Houston, meanwhile, added fewer residents than some of its exurban neighbors despite its population of 2.4M.

Outer-ring Arizona: Phoenix may be the nation’s fifth-largest city, but the real growth is happening beyond its borders. Goodyear, Buckeye, Surprise, and Avondale—all now above 100,000 residents—grew at least 4.5% last year, while Queen Creek expanded 8.2% and is nearing 90,000 residents.

New England growth shift: Boston’s affordability crunch is pushing growth beyond the urban core. Manchester and Nashua continue to attract residents with lower housing costs and no state income tax, while Worcester has grown to nearly 214,000 residents. Everett, just outside Boston, also posted a strong 4.6% population increase amid a recent housing boom.

The Carolinas are still a magnet: North Carolina’s Research Triangle remains one of the country’s strongest growth engines. Raleigh and Durham grew 9% since 2020, while nearby towns like Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Chapel Hill also expanded rapidly. Charlotte, meanwhile, is nearing one million residents after growing 2.2% last year—faster than any U.S. city with more than 500,000 people.

Growth finds affordability: National population growth slowed to 0.5% last year—about half the previous pace—due to tighter immigration restrictions. Even so, Sun Belt and exurban markets continue attracting demand as households prioritize larger homes, newer communities, and affordability.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The next growth frontier: America’s next-generation growth story is increasingly an exurban one. Developers and investors are following households farther from city centers, where cheaper land and master-planned communities are fueling the next wave of demand for retail, multifamily, industrial, and infrastructure.

✍️ Editor’s Picks

Capture every basis point: Eliminate back-office friction before it impacts your returns. See how modern GPs automate the mundane and focus on high-value growth. (sponsored)
Rate reset: CRE leaders are closely watching how newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could reshape interest rate and monetary policy.
Stress surge: U.S. bank multifamily delinquencies climbed nearly sixfold from their 2022 low to the highest level since 2013, as rising refinancing costs and weaker rent growth pressure apartment loans.
Parking capital: An automated parking garage in North Carolina received $13.5 million in C-PACE financing alongside existing bond financing. (sponsored)
Capital comeback: U.S. CRE investment sales jumped 18% in the first quarter to $113B, signaling renewed market momentum led by strong office and industrial activity.
Policy paradox: Progressive mayors are promoting more housing development while expanding tenant protections, raising concerns across the real estate industry.
Wealth squeeze: Miami is becoming wealthier and more upscale as affluent residents pour in, but rising costs are pushing middle- and lower-income residents out.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Fast-track housing: NYC unveiled sweeping reforms aimed at cutting affordable housing development timelines by up to two years through faster approvals and streamlined permitting.
Supply slowdown: DFW’s multifamily market is still working through oversupply, but rising occupancy and improving lending conditions are fueling optimism for a recovery by 2027.
Portfolio pivot: Quarterra is seeking buyers for nearly 4,000 apartment units across eight states as the Lennar-backed firm reshapes its multifamily portfolio.
Tax tradeoff: Proposed exemptions to LA’s Measure ULA transfer tax could cut annual revenue by up to 35%, according to a new city report.

🏭 Industrial

AI appetite: Blackstone’s new data center REIT raised $1.75B in its IPO as investor demand for AI-driven digital infrastructure continues to surge.
Tech expansion: Celestica plans to invest $876M in a massive Fort Worth manufacturing campus to support growing demand for AI data center infrastructure.
Industrial merger: Global Net Lease completed its $535M acquisition of Modiv Industrial, expanding its industrial footprint and reducing office exposure.
Bay boom: Small-bay industrial properties are outperforming larger warehouses as strong tenant demand, limited supply, and e-commerce growth fuel investor interest.

🏬 RETAIL

Retail reshuffle: Retail demand turned negative again in early 2026, but limited supply and strong leasing activity continue to support rents and top locations.
Mall metamorphosis: A dead Orange County mall is being redeveloped into a 2,250-home mixed-use neighborhood as retail sites give way to housing.
Retail magnet: TA Realty paid $55M for Peachtree Station, a fully leased Atlanta retail center anchored by one of Georgia’s busiest Whole Foods stores.

🏢 OFFICE

Chelsea refi: UBS provided a $161M refinance for a Chelsea office and retail building co-owned by Vornado Realty Trust and Aurora Capital.
Terminal expansion: Audiovisual firm Audible Difference signed a 47,000 SF lease at Brooklyn Army Terminal, leading a wave of new deals at the city-owned campus.
Full house: A 95,000 SF lease by nonprofit Advocates brought a Marlborough office building owned by Boston Andes Capital to full occupancy.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Urban rebound: Urban hotel markets led first-quarter performance gains, with San Francisco, LA and NY boosted by recovering business travel and strong leisure demand.
Library backlash: Miami residents sued to block Trump’s planned presidential library tower, arguing the hotel-heavy project violates the Constitution’s emoluments clause.
Depot refi: Barings provided a $78M refinance for the Asher Adams, a 225-room luxury hotel in Salt Lake City operated under Marriott’s Autograph Collection.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Data center-driven construction activity has fueled a rebound in private-sector employment, with nonresidential construction adding an average of 15,300 jobs per month over the past six months, the strongest pace in more than two years.

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

J. Willard “J.W.” Marriott Sr., who later expanded the small root beer stand into the Hot Shoppes restaurant chain before opening the first Marriott hotel, the Twin Bridges Marriott in Arlington, Virginia, in 1957.