CRE Pricing Gap Between Property Winners And Losers Hits Record High

Altus says the gap between commercial real estate's winners and losers is now the widest on record.

Nina Dale
June 22, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning. Rising interest rates and global uncertainty haven't derailed CRE pricing yet. Instead, the biggest trend is the growing divide between top-performing sectors and the rest of the market.

🎙️ This Week on No Cap: Presidium Co-Founder John Griggs shares how navigating multiple real estate cycles—from the dot-com crash to the GFC—helped build a vertically integrated platform that has renovated more than 20,000 units across the Sun Belt. (Thanks to our sponsor, Lennar Investor Marketplace)

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CRE Trivia 🧠

Which financier's actions during the Panic of 1907 helped pave the way for the creation of the Federal Reserve?

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH HINES

What’s next for real estate’s recovery?

Hines' 2026 Midyear Investment Outlook explores a market that is thawing—but unevenly.

Debt availability is improving, transaction activity is returning, and pricing has adjusted across many sectors.
Constraints around supply, financing, and demand continue to create uneven opportunities across markets and property types.
Investors who remain selective and focused on execution may be best positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Subscribe to Hines Market Moves to be among the first to receive Hines' 2026 Midyear Investment Outlook and insights on what's ahead for global real estate.

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

7,500.58

Pct Chg:
+1.08%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

836.01

Pct Chg:
-0.11%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.453%

Pct Chg:
-0.01

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

3.61%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 06/18/2026 market close.

Pricing Gap

CRE Pricing Gap Between Property Winners And Losers Hits Record High

The CRE market is still climbing, but the distance between the sector's top performers and weakest links has never been greater.

By the numbers: Altus Group's latest report found industrial property prices in the first quarter of 2026 were 88.5% higher than pre-pandemic levels, while office prices were up 36.6% over the same period. The firm described the divergence as a "structural repricing" rather than a temporary recovery gap.

Driving the market: CRE prices rose 1.4% QoQ and 8.7% YoY in Q1 2026, with industrial and retail leading annual gains at 11.8% and 10.4%, respectively. Every property type except hospitality hit new pricing highs during the quarter.

Macro risks fade: Altus expected elevated interest rates, rising oil prices and tech-sector uncertainty, including AI's impact on office demand, to pressure CRE values. So far, those risks haven't dented pricing, though the firm said they could emerge later this year.

Pricing breakdown: Despite its impressive price appreciation, industrial remains the least expensive major property type on a per-square-foot basis, with a median transaction price of $110/SF. Multifamily commands the highest median price at $150/SF, followed by retail at $142/SF, hospitality at $138/SF and office at $137/SF.

Setting records: The median transaction price across all commercial property types reached a record $129/SF in the first quarter of 2026. According to Altus, prices have more than doubled since the market bottomed at $56/SF in 2009, reflecting the sector's long-term value growth despite shifting market dynamics.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The big picture: The CRE story is shifting from a broad market recovery to asset selection. Industrial and retail continue to attract investor confidence, while office lags behind, creating the widest pricing spread on record and reinforcing that this cycle has clear winners and losers.

A MESSAGE FROM BUILDOUT

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Slow lease-up?: Your tour-to-lease rate is probably lying to you. Authentic's audit traces every prospect from ad to lease. Subscribers get 50% off. (sponsored)
Selective resilience: CRE’s recovery remains on track in 2026, with the strongest opportunities coming from selective investments in high-growth sectors and markets.
Occupancy endurance: REITs maintained strong occupancy rates across most property sectors in early 2026, helping support steady operational performance despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
Trust tech: In a tougher CRE market, specialized investor CRMs are helping sponsors win and retain capital by delivering a more personalized, transparent investor experience. (sponsored)
Distress resurgence: CMBS distress climbed to 11.86% in May 2026 as rising delinquencies and special servicing activity pushed stress levels higher, with office properties remaining the sector’s biggest trouble spot.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Rent divergence: U.S. multifamily fundamentals remain uneven in 2026 as strong demand in Midwest and gateway markets contrasts with rent declines in supply-heavy Sun Belt metros.
Housing squeeze: Persistent affordability challenges, elevated housing costs, and slowing population growth are keeping pressure on both renters and homeowners despite rising inventories and softer rents.
Value visibility: Apartment operators are focusing on amenities, technology, and digital marketing that clearly demonstrate value to cost-conscious renters, as affordability pressures reshape leasing decisions.

🏭 Industrial

Detention retreat: DHS is scrapping most plans to convert warehouses into ICE detention centers, instead relying on existing facilities amid growing costs, legal hurdles, and community opposition.
Refinancing surge: Blackstone’s QTS is seeking up to $870M in refinancing backed by five fully leased hyperscale data centers.
Digital tilt: Global REIT managers are increasingly favoring data centers over other property sectors, reflecting strong demand for digital infrastructure and long-term growth potential.

🏬 RETAIL

Catering expansion: Houston’s Aga’s Restaurant is expanding its catering business with a 47,000 SF warehouse acquisition and a new takeout-focused location in Katy.
Footprint shift: Under Armour is closing its Oregon office and consolidating operations in Baltimore, New York, and a smaller Portland location as part of its ongoing turnaround strategy.
SoHo expansion: French luxury cashmere brand Kujten is opening its second U.S. store in SoHo, signaling continued demand from international retailers for prime New York shopping corridors.

🏢 OFFICE

Debt reset: Office Properties Income Trust emerged from bankruptcy after eliminating $714M in debt, positioning the office REIT for a leaner recovery.
Desk revival: Companies are quietly bringing back assigned seating as employees seek greater stability, belonging, and productivity in the evolving workplace.
Studio bargain: Netflix is set to acquire LA’s Radford Studio Center for about $400M, a steep discount from its 2021 valuation, as it expands its owned production footprint.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Houston growth: Sonesta expanded its Houston presence with the opening of a 126-room airport-area hotel, strengthening its footprint in one of the nation’s largest logistics hubs.
Atrium reinvented: Embassy Suites completed a multimillion-dollar renovation, modernizing its suites, atrium, dining, and event spaces while expanding its regional identity and market presence.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Source: Colliers

Commercial property values climbed 4.1% YoY through May, led by a retail rebound and resilient industrial assets, while office and multifamily sectors continue to lag and overall CRE pricing remains about 14% below its 2022 peak.

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

J.P. Morgan. He organized a private bank rescue to stop the financial panic, exposing the need for a central bank and helping spur the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.