- Commercial deals fell 10% year-over-year in November, hitting just 1,800 transactions.
- Investors prioritized large-scale, high-quality assets, with sales above $100M rising 51%.
- Multifamily led November’s deal count; medical office and data center assets ranked highest by volume.
- Discounted office sales and major portfolio trades shaped market trends.
Market Activity Cools
Commercial real estate deal-making lost momentum in November, according to Moody’s data provided to CNBC. With overall transaction volume dropping 10% year-over-year to just 1,800 deals, November activity was below even 2020’s pandemic levels. This marks the second consecutive month of declining volume, following October’s reversal in post-Fed hike recovery trends.
Shift to Larger, Higher-Quality Assets
Despite the overall slowdown, investors focused on larger, higher-quality commercial deals. Sales over $100M jumped 51% compared to last year, pushing the average deal size to $14.2M—well above the $12M average since 2019. Two-thirds of pre-pandemic market liquidity remains, mainly concentrated in large-scale Class A assets and portfolio trades.
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Sector Breakdown
Sector highlights for November show multifamily leading with 20 transactions, followed by office (11 deals) and industrial (eight). This comes as broader apartment sales activity continues to feel the weight of the ongoing market slowdown, pointing to a divergence between investor demand for scaled multifamily deals and the overall softness in the sector. Medical office properties saw record activity outside Moody’s core tracked sectors, with Welltower’s $7.2B sale of a 296-property outpatient portfolio topping the month.
Discounts and Portfolio Trades
Office deals frequently closed at substantial discounts, exemplified by Axonic Capital’s acquisition of 114 West 41st St. in Manhattan at 53% below its previous sale price. Companies are using this market to gain critical assets or conversion opportunities at reduced values. Major portfolio deals—such as the Welltower sale and a $615M SDC Capital data center land purchase—accounted for 17 of the top 50 transactions, extending the trend toward scale and operational resilience in commercial deals.
What’s Ahead
Tight credit, policy uncertainty, and the elevated rate environment continue to temper commercial deal flows. Still, investor focus on resilient sectors (like medical office and digital infrastructure) and large-scale transactions provides pockets of momentum as the market adapts.
