- PwC expects US real estate dealmaking to be driven less by a broad recovery and more by capital flowing into AI-enabled and infrastructure-oriented platforms.
- Data centers, logistics, senior housing, and residential sectors are attracting capital, while office and legacy retail continue to wrestle with refinancing and valuation challenges.
- The shift could accelerate REIT consolidation, expand private credit’s role, and reshape how investors value real estate businesses.
Real estate investors aren’t waiting for a traditional market rebound. PwC’s US Deals 2026 Midyear Outlook argues that the sector has entered a structural transition where technology, infrastructure, and operating expertise increasingly determine where capital flows. Rather than treating properties as standalone assets, investors are underwriting integrated platforms with scalable operations and digital capabilities.
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A New Investment Playbook
According to PwC, capital continues rotating toward operationally intensive sectors with durable demand drivers. Data centers, logistics infrastructure, senior housing, renewables, student housing, and residential-oriented assets are drawing investor attention, while challenged office and legacy retail properties remain under pressure from refinancing needs and weaker fundamentals.
The Details
AI is becoming a bigger factor throughout the transaction process. Buyers and lenders increasingly evaluate operational reporting, data architecture, automation capabilities, and forecasting tools during diligence. PwC says assets capable of supporting scalable technology-enabled operations are attracting stronger financing conditions, while less adaptable properties face longer deal timelines and greater valuation pressure.
Another trend gaining traction is public-to-private REIT activity. PwC notes that US equity REITs entered 2026 trading at a median 16.2% discount to net asset value, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence data, creating opportunities for consolidation and take-private transactions. At the same time, private credit providers, insurers, and pension investors are expanding their role in financing acquisitions and recapitalizations as traditional banks remain selective.
Infrastructure Convergence Gains Momentum
The report frames a broader convergence across real estate, infrastructure, supply chains, and technology. Cross-border investors remain selective but continue pursuing digital infrastructure, renewables, and residential platforms, with large institutional and sovereign investors seeking scalable operating businesses capable of absorbing long-duration capital. Transactions such as Apollo’s acquisition of STACK Infrastructure illustrate the appeal of infrastructure-oriented real assets.
Why It Matters
The report suggests the biggest divide in commercial real estate may no longer be between property sectors but between operating models. Investors increasingly reward businesses with technology integration, operational transparency, infrastructure access, and flexible capital structures. That shift could alter valuation frameworks across the industry and influence everything from M&A strategy to development pipelines.
What’s Next
PwC expects transaction activity to improve during the second half of 2026, particularly across operationally intensive and infrastructure-adjacent sectors. The firm says investors should watch AI adoption, private credit availability, power and data infrastructure constraints, and continued capital rotation as the biggest drivers of deal activity and valuation. As operational capabilities become more central to investment decisions, the gap between technology-enabled platforms and legacy assets could widen further.
