- Altus finds that metros topping U-Haul’s rankings, among them Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix, had the weakest realized storage rent growth over two years as migration drew in developers.
- Texas and Florida gained over 800,000 people in 2025 and lead the nation in permits, and the top in-migration states drew about 38% of storage acquisitions in five years.
- Phoenix rents jumped nearly a fifth in a year, then fell back to where it began, and Altus advises buyers to wait until supply is absorbed, about three to four years post-peak.
The old habit of following U-Haul trucks to find self-storage demand misleads investors, because migration is a supply signal, according to Altus Group.
People are moving to the Sun Belt, especially Texas and Florida, but storage is quick to build, so developers chase the same demand and supply overshoots.
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Where Migration Meets Overbuilding
Migration and construction coincide. Texas and Florida gained over 800,000 people in 2025 and also issue more residential permits than any other state, so the biggest in-migration states are the biggest builders.
Investors piled in as well: about 38% of U.S. self-storage purchases over the past five years went to the highest in-migration states. Ranking big metros by how much storage rents rose over two years put Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix last, with slower-growing coastal and Midwest markets ahead.
The divergence appears only in rents actually achieved. Forecasts used by appraisers cluster in a narrow range for every metro, masking it.
Phoenix as the Case Study
Phoenix is the textbook example. During the migration wave, rents climbed nearly a fifth between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022, then gave it back when new facilities opened.
Phoenix still has the largest pipeline in the country, around 6.9% of existing stock, and its rate growth remains negative. Austin ran the same course and is recovering, with rate growth moving from -4.4% toward breakeven, while Sarasota, Tampa and Orlando are partway through their own corrections.
The Development Clock
The benefit comes first: demand and an initial rate bump show up within roughly a year of a surge in arrivals. Construction then takes 18 to 36 months, so new supply hits in years two and three and rates bottom out.
In Altus’s framework, a market turns buyable only after absorption catches up and rate declines level off, usually 36 to 48 months following peak migration.
What Owners and Buyers Should Do
Owners in heavy-migration markets, Altus advises, have a window to push rates now, while pricing power holds. Lock in existing tenants before new deliveries and price incoming supply into any acquisition underwriting.
For buyers, strong migration is a reason to wait. Altus wants two signs first: a shrinking construction pipeline and year-over-year rate declines that have stopped accelerating.
Why It Matters
In Altus’s view, heavy migration is a reason for caution rather than a cue to buy. Texas topped the 2025 U-Haul index, with Florida, Tennessee and the Carolinas rounding out the top five and Dallas, Houston and Austin leading the metros. Altus treats them as a watch list for when pipelines clear.
The supply theme appears elsewhere, as CRE Daily reported on the self-storage supply slowdown and on how self-storage debt concentrates refinancing risk.
What’s Next
Altus points to a forecast that nationwide new supply in 2026 will run about 19% below the prior year, an early sign the oversupply cycle is turning. Buyers should track that supply drop first.
