Multifamily Permitting Trends Signal Start of New Supply Cycle

Has The Next Multifamily Supply Cycle Begun

If recent permitting data is any indication, several US markets may already be on the upswing. According to new RealPage analysis, after at least two years of declining permit activity, national multifamily permitting trends suggest a potential trough has formed.

While the timing of the cycle varies by market, a clear pattern of renewed momentum is emerging in several high-growth metros.

Permitting Trends Show Signs of Life

Among the top 10 markets, Dallas and Houston stand out. Both have seen steady monthly increases in annual multifamily permitting since September 2024. Orlando followed with upward movement starting in November, while Austin and Phoenix—which didn’t begin their slowdown until early 2024—have recently shown slight upticks.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s trajectory remains murky, and other markets like Newark and Columbus are picking up steam with year-over-year permitting increases of more than 1,000 units.

May’s Leaders and Laggards

• New York continues to dominate with over 26,000 units permitted.
• Dallas, Houston, and Austin each permitted 13,000 to 15,000 units, maintaining their lead positions.
• Phoenix, Orlando, and Atlanta followed with 11,000 to 12,000 units.
• Newark, now included due to updated metro definitions, surpassed 9,000 units for the fifth straight month.
• Los Angeles saw a 34% year-over-year decline, dropping to 8,300 units permitted.

On the downside, notable Y/Y drops occurred in Washington, DC (-5,322 units), Tampa (-3,965), San Jose (-3,094), and Miami (-2,938).

Bright Spots in Smaller Markets

Markets posting large annual permitting increases include:

• Chicago (+2,112 units)
• Fayetteville, AR (+1,699)
• Anaheim (+1,448)
• Richmond (+1,334)
• Des Moines (+1,285)
• Augusta, GA (+1,237)

These figures point to a widening recovery that’s not limited to the major gateway cities.

City-Level Highlights

At the permit-issuing level:

• Brooklyn remained the top permitting jurisdiction but saw a slight decline.
• Columbus and Austin both increased their annual totals by over 1,000 units.
• The Bronx climbed three positions on a 1,000-unit gain.
• Harris County (Houston) held steady at #5.

Other major cities including Atlanta, Miami, and Los Angeles each permitted approximately 5,000 units, with San Diego rounding out the top 10 at 4,500 units.

However, some discrepancies in multifamily permitting remain—Charlotte and San Diego performed well at the city level but ranked just #18 and #19 as metros, while Dallas and Houston, strong at the metro level, placed lower among permitting cities.

Why It Matters

The data may signal the early phase of a new multifamily supply cycle, though persistent headwinds—higher construction costs, financing constraints, and macroeconomic uncertainty—could temper the pace of recovery.

Still, signs of momentum across diverse geographies suggest developers are finding ways to move forward in key markets. If current permitting trends hold, 2025 could mark the beginning of the next upcycle in multifamily housing.

What’s Next

Watch for sustained permitting increases through Q3 as a key indicator that the next development wave is truly underway.