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Guest: Ray Lawler, Head of the Americas, Hines
Ray Lawler is Head of the Americas at Hines, the world’s largest privately owned real estate investment firm. A former U.S. Marine Corps KC-130 pilot, he has spent nearly two decades at Hines, leading operations across 13 of the firm’s 30 countries, including six years running Asia Pacific, before taking over the Americas.
Hines manages $100 billion across 30 countries, but the firm’s playbook for this cycle isn’t a bet on the market bailing anyone out. Ray Lawler, Head of the Americas at Hines and a former U.S. Marine Corps KC-130 pilot, joined No Cap hosts Jack Stone and Alex Gornick to break down where the world’s largest privately owned real estate firm is putting capital today, and why he thinks much of the industry is underwriting the wrong thing.
Key Takeaways
Hines is treating multifamily as its top conviction call today, but explicitly refuses to underwrite rent growth or cap rate compression as part of the thesis.
“Praying for rent growth or cap rate compression is not a good strategy.”
Ray Lawler, [40:23]
The firm filters every deal, in every market, through the same four-part framework, regardless of scale.
“It’s risk, profit, strategy, and human capital. Is the risk commensurate with the returns? How much time and human capital does it take, and are we being strategic?”
Ray Lawler, [21:55]
Office is bifurcating sharply: trophy, well-located assets are drawing fresh capital, while commodity office in weaker locations is increasingly viewed as obsolete.
“There’s the high-performing, rising rents… and then there’s kind of everything else. You wouldn’t wanna have a commodity office building in a B location.”
Ray Lawler, [15:10]
Even at $100 billion in scale, some of Hines’ best deals came from entrepreneurial persistence rather than institutional process.
“No deal is too small. It’s not about the size of the deal, it’s about the profitability.”
Ray Lawler, [27:00]
Lawler’s advice to young people entering the industry: treat the opportunities that feel riskiest as the ones most worth pursuing.
“Most of my life I was running to the roar and didn’t even know it.”
Ray Lawler, [49:48]
