- Trepp estimates $733.2B of commercial real estate loans mature in 2027, following roughly $800B projected for this year, much of it handled when rates were lower.
- Apartment owners who refinanced in 2021 and 2022 now face about twice their original rates, and much of the maturing multifamily debt is floating-rate, so lenders will demand more equity.
- Buyers are lining up for distressed assets, but sellers haven’t capitulated. Deals not under contract are repricing by up to about 10%, yet transactions remain stalled.
CRE debt maturities will total $733.2B in 2027, and today’s rates will make refinancing far pricier, CNBC reports in its Property Play newsletter.
Trepp’s tally follows an estimated $800B due this year, much of it addressed earlier in 2026 when borrowing was cheaper. Lenders are now less willing to grant extensions and modifications, Trepp chief product officer Lonnie Hendry told CNBC, so more distress is likely to surface, along with bigger loan losses and chances for investors to buy at lower prices.
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Patience Runs Out
Lenders spent years giving borrowers more time on the bet that rates would drop. That bet is ending.
LeFrak Organization executive chairman Richard LeFrak told CNBC’s Property Play podcast he’d be “petrified” holding debt now. Banks, he said, are getting more aggressive about selling loans or disposing of properties.
Office and apartments are taking the hardest hit, though CNBC notes that office occupancy and values are on the mend.
Apartments Face a Reset
Owners who financed apartments in 2021 and 2022 are looking at roughly twice their original rates. Rastegar Capital founder Ari Rastegar told CNBC the volume of multifamily debt coming due is the largest he has seen, and most of it carries floating rates.
He sketched a typical bridge loan: two-year term, two one-year extensions, priced near 4% at origination. With rates up 525 basis points, it would reset near 9%. With rents softer and debt costs higher, the building supports a smaller loan, so lenders are asking for more equity.
Some borrowers are turning to cheaper short-term loans. That buys a few years, not a solution, since apartment debt is typically a ten-year product.
Where the Equity Comes From
Sponsors short on proceeds have limited choices. CRE Daily recently explained how rescue capital, typically preferred equity or mezzanine debt, can plug a refinancing shortfall, though it carries required returns, ongoing payments and frequently personal guarantees.
That’s the cost behind Rastegar’s math. Each added point of debt service shrinks what an owner keeps.
Buyers Wait, Sellers Hold
Rastegar said his firm is gearing up to buy aggressively and is launching a global roadshow aimed at retail and institutional investors.
Jason Morgan, co-CEO of Morgan Properties, told CNBC that deal flow has stalled. Contracts that haven’t been signed are collapsing or being repriced by as much as roughly 10%, he said, anecdotally.
Fundamentals are improving, Morgan said, just not enough to justify 2021 and 2022 valuations.
Why It Matters
The maturity wall is a financing story and a pricing story at once. The gap between old and new debt costs forces equity checks, extensions or sales.
Stress already shows in the loan data. Trepp Research found that Texas floating-rate loans totaling $3.04B across 130 performing apartment loans report a debt-service coverage ratio below 1.0x.
What’s Next
Morgan expects sellers to come around over the next few months. Until they do, repriced deals aren’t closing because owners haven’t budged, so the bargains remain more talk than volume.
