- RealPage projects effective rents climbing about 2.4% nationally between Q4 2026 and Q3 2027, with nine of the top 50 markets, or 18%, landing in the 3% range.
- San Francisco and Milwaukee lead at 3.8%, while Houston (0.5%) and San Antonio (0.8%) lag as they absorb supply. No top-50 market is projected to see rents fall.
- About 320,000 apartments should deliver over the next four quarters, led by Dallas at just over 20,000 units, even as hiring cools and the Fed keeps raising rates.
RealPage forecasts national apartment rent growth of about 2.4% between Q4 2026 and Q3 2027, according to deputy chief economist Arben Skivjani’s 3Q26 outlook.
The firmer picture is spreading: nine metros among the 50 tracked, or 18%, are projected to post gains in the 3% range.
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A Softer Economy Frames the Forecast
Skivjani says the spring energy shock hurt growth less than first feared. Q2 GDP came in at 2.2% annualized after revision, up from the initial 1.5% estimate, and Q1 was raised to 2.5%.
Jobs are the weak spot. Payrolls shrank by 10,000 in July after revisions, rose 133,000 in August and gained only 29,000 in September, per RealPage, a pace that matches the September jobs gain that missed expectations.
Wage growth cooled to 3% from 3.5% at midyear, while August headline PCE inflation ran at 3.4% and core PCE at 3%.
Fed Keeps Tightening
The FOMC unanimously raised the federal funds target by a quarter point in September, to a 3.75% to 4% band. Median projections point to roughly 4.1% by December, implying one more increase before year-end.
The central bank also expects 2026 growth of 2.3% and 2027 PCE inflation of 2.3%.
Where Rents Run Fastest
San Francisco and Milwaukee top the 50-market ranking at 3.8%, trailed by Phoenix at 3.7%. Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland, Los Angeles, Denver and San Diego all project 3.1% or higher.
About 64% of markets, including Dallas, Austin, Chicago, Boston and Seattle, fall in a 2% to 2.9% range. New York, Washington, Fort Worth and Atlanta are among seven in the 1% band.
Houston, at 0.5%, and San Antonio, at 0.8%, are the only two below 1%, both still digesting new supply. None of the top 50 faces falling rents.
A Big Delivery Wave
RealPage expects roughly 320,000 apartment completions during the coming year, 85% of them in the 50 tracked metros. Dallas leads with more than 20,000 units, followed by New York and Newark in the 17,000 to 17,500 range.
Phoenix, Houston and Charlotte each deliver between 13,000 and 13,500 apiece, while Memphis, Virginia Beach, Cleveland and Oakland get fewer than 800 apiece.
Why It Matters
Rent growth is broadening instead of concentrating in a handful of metros, consistent with data showing rents turn positive as demand catches up with supply.
The split between markets still matters, though. Supply-heavy Sun Belt metros such as Houston and San Antonio remain at the bottom of the growth ranking.
What’s Next
Cooling hiring and another expected rate hike are the main risks to demand. Watch absorption in Dallas, New York and Phoenix, which face the heaviest delivery loads.
