- Miami-Dade’s retail pipeline reached 1.3M SF in the third quarter, double last year’s level, as developers gain confidence in a market with 3% direct vacancy.
- Leasing slowed to 257K SF across 118 deals from 413K SF across 150 deals in Q2, and absorption turned negative, yet triple-net asking rents set a record $44.34 per SF.
- Heavy preleasing is letting developers underwrite new projects, but vacancy below 3% in core submarkets means tenants must stay flexible to find space.
Miami-Dade developers have more retail under construction than at any time in nearly three years, per a Colliers report cited by Bisnow. The county’s retail construction pipeline hit 1.3M SF in Q3, twice the year-ago volume.
Stable, low vacancy and climbing rents are fueling the confidence.
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Vacancy Holds, Leasing Cools
Direct vacancy edged up from 2.9% to 3%. It has remained in this range for a year, still below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the market recorded negative absorption. About 59K SF of new deliveries and 94K SF of move-outs drove the decline. Most move-outs occurred in the county’s northeastern and southern areas.
Leasing activity also slowed. Tenants signed 257K SF across 118 deals, down from 413K SF across 150 deals in Q2. The largest deal involved Holozoo Florida’s 51K SF digital zoo concept.
Rents Keep Setting Records
Triple-net asking rents reached a record $44.34 per SF. That’s up from $42.83 a year earlier and more than 18% above 2021 levels. Colliers sees no signs of the climb slowing.
Colliers EVP Sabrina Stimming called the pace startling. However, she said rents have remained sustainable so far. She credits strong tenant demand and a clearer outlook. That contrasts with conditions a couple of years ago, when developers hesitated.
What Is Being Built
Miami-Dade has 17 projects in its pipeline, nearly double Broward County’s 697K SF and far above Palm Beach County’s 190K SF. The largest project accounts for 500K SF. It forms the retail component of the $1B Miami Freedom Park.
The project signed PopStroke, Toroverde and another retailer for 120K SF in December.
Elsewhere, Palm Springs Square in Miami Gardens will deliver 230K SF, with Publix as its anchor. In Doral, Terra leased 40K SF to Walmart for a Neighborhood Market at Doral Atrium. The 78K SF project is due next year and is already 95% leased. Other tenants include PNC Bank and Bonchon Chicken.
Why It Matters
Preleasing helps developers justify their underwriting, Stimming said. That’s important because high construction costs have stalled many retail projects nationwide. Colliers’ Haley Boatright also linked the pipeline to population growth and new mixed-use development.
Moreover, limited availability may keep rents high. Brickell vacancy stands at 2.7%. Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and Aventura each report rates below 2%. Overall, retail remains one of the strongest property types, with low vacancy and scarce supply.
Negative absorption alongside record rents highlights just how little space is available. Vacancy has hovered near 3% for a year. As a result, even modest move-outs can quickly lead to new leases or higher rents. This dynamic helps explain why lenders and developers remain comfortable adding space.
What’s Next
Retailers looking to enter Miami will need flexibility, Stimming said. Not every brand will secure a spot in Coconut Grove this year or Aventura by 2028.
Looking ahead, watch whether leasing rebounds from its Q3 dip. Also monitor whether preleasing keeps pace with new project starts.
