- MSCI data puts 2026 on pace to be the second-most-active year for U.S. commercial real estate deal-making on record, but corporate mergers are driving much of that strength.
- Entity-level sales reached $119 billion year-to-date through August, including a record $70 billion in August alone, led by the Equity Residential and AvalonBay merger forming Vivmark.
- Stripping out M&A, individual asset sales are still growing but decelerating, a signal investors should weigh heading into the year’s most consequential deal-making stretch.
Headline CRE transaction volume through August put 2026 on pace to be the second-most-active year since Real Capital Analytics began tracking the market, according to MSCI data reported by GlobeSt.
But blockbuster entity-level deals are doing much of the lifting. Sales of individual properties show a recovery that is losing momentum.
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One Merger, One Record Month
The formation of Vivmark, through the merger of Equity Residential and AvalonBay, drove much of August’s surge. MSCI counts that merger as each company selling its portfolio to the newly created entity, turning a single corporate combination into a major contributor to the monthly total.
At roughly $70 billion, Vivmark tops the 2007 Equity Office Properties deal in nominal terms, though the earlier take-private would be larger after adjusting for nearly two decades of inflation. Jim Costello, co-head of MSCI’s real assets research team, told GlobeSt the figure was so large that clients initially questioned whether it was accurate.
The Details
Entity-level sales totaled $119 billion year-to-date through August, with $70 billion posted in August alone. That marks the fastest single-month pace for M&A-type sales on record.
Individual asset sales, meanwhile, fell 28% year-over-year in August. MSCI expects that decline to narrow as more deals from smaller, less transparent markets get reported. Through August, individual sales were still running 12% ahead of the same period in 2025.
Growth, but Slower Growth
That 12% gain follows a 29% increase in 2025, a sequence MSCI reads as an expansion that is slowing rather than accelerating. Costello said the signals are getting weaker on the individual asset side once the M&A surge is stripped out.
CRE Daily previously covered how megadeals lifted August sales. The individual-asset data tells a more measured story about everyday investor activity.
Why It Matters
Aggregate volume is a common shorthand for market health, and a handful of corporate combinations can distort it sharply. For brokers, lenders and appraisers, individual asset sales offer a cleaner read on pricing and liquidity for typical properties.
The market still has ample debt capital and remains far from the liquidity crunch that followed the last cycle’s peak, according to GlobeSt. But bond-market uncertainty is raising questions about rates, pricing and whether that liquidity stays dependable, echoing how property prices split by deal size.
What’s Next
Investors are heading into the year’s most consequential deal-making stretch. MSCI’s revisions to August figures will show whether the 28% drop in individual asset sales narrows as expected.
Individual asset sales, not headline totals, will offer the clearest signal of where the recovery is headed through year-end.
