- The top 10% of US earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, per Moody’s Analytics and Bank of America.
- Retail and mixed-use asset performance is increasingly tied to affluent shoppers, as lower-income and middle-class spending stagnates or declines.
- This top-heavy demand profile introduces concentration risk for landlords and investors reliant on high-income consumers.
The Steepening K-Shaped Recovery
Globe St reports that consumer spending in the US is now more heavily concentrated among the wealthiest households than at any point in decades. According to Bank of America, the top 10% of earners spend as much on discretionary items as the bottom 70% combined—a sign of how the so-called K-shaped recovery has intensified since the pandemic. Moody’s Analytics, analyzing Federal Reserve data, found these high-income households, earning $250,000 or more, drove 49.7% of all consumer spending, up from 36% thirty years ago. For CRE owners and investors, this concentration creates new patterns of risk and resilience for retail, mixed-use, and consumer-facing assets.
During 2025 and into 2026, the US retail landscape increasingly reflected this skew. As per Colliers, high-income consumers remain relatively insulated from broader economic pressures—such as high rent burdens and rising debt servicing—that impact middle- and lower-income shoppers. The result: headline retail sales numbers remain solid, but the underlying distribution of spending has shifted dramatically upward, with direct implications for property investment and tenant strategy.
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A Top-Heavy Consumer Economy
The shift toward top-heavy spending did not happen overnight. Economists warned about a K-shaped recovery in 2020. They expected affluent households to pull ahead of everyone else.
Bank of America’s latest analysis adds more detail. The top 10% now match the discretionary spending of the bottom 70% combined. A small group drives growth in entertainment, fitness, and apparel.
Moody’s found a similar divide. Energy, housing, groceries, and healthcare consume 63% of low-income budgets. Those costs absorb only 31% of spending for top earners.
This imbalance keeps headline consumption figures looking healthy. Meanwhile, millions of households continue pulling back. Bank of America warned that aggregate data hides growing stress below the surface.
More recently, economists adopted the term “E-shaped economy.” The middle weakens, the bottom stretches, and the top remains resilient.
The Details
The numbers highlight the divide. Retail sales rose 1.1% in 2025. However, spending fell 3.8% among the lowest income decile. Spending rose 2.3% among top earners.
The top 20% generated more than 60% of discretionary spending growth. Colliers reported a similar pattern in May 2026. Retail sales increased 5.2% year over year. Core retail growth reached only 0.2% after adjustments.
Some categories outperformed the broader market. Theater and music venue visits climbed 12.23%. Clothing store visits increased 4.15%. Department store traffic rose 5.64%.
Discount and dollar stores posted even stronger gains. Visits jumped 7.79% year over year. Grocery store traffic increased only 0.8%.
The market continues to split in two directions. Higher-income shoppers pursue experiences and premium goods. Lower-income consumers focus on essentials and value.
Retail Demand Shifts And Investment Implications
This divide now shapes retail competition. Affluent demand supports assets in wealthy trade areas. Experiential and discretionary categories benefit the most.
Properties serving lower-income areas face tougher conditions. Weak foot traffic pressures sales and leasing performance. Headline data often hides these challenges.
Some value retailers are responding by opening stores in wealthier neighborhoods. They hope to capture spending across both income groups.
The top 10% also create concentration risk. Bank of America warned about that exposure. Market declines or tax changes could hit spending quickly.
High-income job losses could create similar effects. Moody’s argued that resilience can hide vulnerability. Assets misaligned with spending trends face greater risk.
Retailers and investors cannot rely on broad averages. The spending base continues to narrow.
What’s Next
Landlords must align strategy with local demographics. Assets near affluent households remain well positioned. Entertainment, fitness, and specialty retail should benefit.
Value formats may still attract shoppers. However, margins and demand could remain volatile. Lower-income households continue reducing discretionary purchases.
Owners should closely monitor spending trends and consumer risk. Consumer spending still drives about 69% of US GDP. Any shock to affluent households could spread quickly through retail and CRE.
