- Manhattan new development contracts fell to 240 from 331 year over year in Q3, and contract volume dropped 13% to $961M from $1.1B, while closed prices held near $2,070 per square foot.
- Roughly 3,000 new development units sit on the market, 30% below the 10-year average, and four older projects account for about 1,000 unsold units.
- Boutique launches and older buildings led sales, and entry-level projects did well because that segment is starved for inventory, while resale contracts rose over the same period.
Manhattan new development contracts fell to 240 in the third quarter from 331 a year earlier, according to The Real Deal, citing Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing data. Contract volume dropped 13% to $961M from $1.1B.
The quarter may mark the market’s bottom, The Real Deal reports, though the resale market stayed healthy, with contract signings up over the same period.
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Low Inventory Is the Culprit
Robin Schneiderman, managing director at BHSDM, blames low inventory after several years of a slow development pipeline. The roughly 3,000 new development units on the market are 30% below Manhattan’s 10-year average.
The supply is also uneven. Four buildings that launched at least four years ago, including One Wall Street and the Waldorf-Astoria condo conversion, account for about 1,000 unsold units. The average closed price held roughly flat year over year at about $2,070 per square foot.
Brooklyn Tells a Similar Story
Brooklyn contracts fell 21% to 198, and contract volume fell 20% to $350M. Front & York, the two-tower Dumbo development from CIM Group and LIVWRK, led the borough with 11 contracts, according to Marketproof.
The 400-unit project launched sales in 2021 and is now more than 80% sold.
Boutique Launches and Older Buildings Lead
Only 360 new units reached the Manhattan market across 10 buildings in the quarter, so many top sellers were boutique launches or older buildings catching a second wind against reduced competition.
The Emmet Building at 95 Madison in NoMad, a historic office conversion by Sunlight Development and NuVerse, signed 28 contracts at an average asking price of $2,036 per square foot. It has 65 condos across 16 stories, with prices from just over $1M for a one-bedroom to more than $25M for a six-bedroom penthouse.
JVP Management’s 250 West 96th, which launched sales four years ago, signed 13 contracts and is now two-thirds sold across 130 units.
Entry-Level Pricing Wins
Projects with more entry-level pricing fared particularly well, Schneiderman said, because that segment of the market is starving for inventory. Ogden CAP Properties’ former rental building at 155 West 68th Street added 15 contracts at an average asking price of $1,402 per square foot after putting 324 condos on the market in 2024.
Why It Matters
Thin supply, rather than weak demand, explains much of the drop, which matters for developers weighing new launches. Schneiderman said the numbers make it hard to call the market good or bad, describing the quarter as a head-scratcher.
The pipeline question ties to the condo pipeline, which has been rebuilding after decade-low inventory.
What’s Next
Watch whether new launches ramp up enough to lift contract counts from Q3’s 240, and whether the roughly 1,000 unsold units in older projects clear. Resale strength suggests buyers are still active.
