In Manhattan, Dollar Volume Climbs While Fewer Buildings Trade

Manhattan is pacing toward more investment-sales dollars than 2025 even as fewer buildings change hands, an eighth straight year with transaction velocity below its long-term average.

October 01, 2026

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Good morning. Manhattan's investment market is throwing off more cash than last year, yet fewer buildings are actually changing hands. The recovery has the capital back; what it still lacks are sellers.

🎙️ This Week on No Cap: DWS's Todd Henderson on why real estate is becoming the AI immunity trade. (Thanks to our sponsor, Warespace)

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Market Snapshot

Most Active Neighborhood

By Deal Count

Soundview — 11 sales

Properties Sold

All Asset Types

152

Transaction Volume

Sales Activity

$552.7M

Top Office Submarket

Avg Starting Rent

Hudson Yards

$180 / SF

Manhattan Office Rent

Avg Effective

$92.92 / SF

Office Rent Growth

YoY Change

+28.6%

*Office metrics courtesy of CompStak; data from 6/01/26 to 8/31/26. Sales metrics courtesy of Actovia; NYC properties reported sold during the week of 9/18/26 – 9/24/26.

Velocity gap

Manhattan's Money Is Moving Faster Than Its Market

Manhattan is on track to move more investment-sales dollars in 2026 than it did in 2025, yet the count of buildings actually trading keeps sliding toward an eighth straight year below its long-run pace.

By the numbers: Manhattan investment sales hit $10.173 billion in the first half, $4.197 billion in the first quarter and $5.976 billion in the second, a pace toward roughly $20.346 billion that would edge past 2025's $19.914 billion.

Deals stay scarce: Just 341 properties changed hands in the first half, putting 2026 on pace for about 682 sales versus 693 last year, more money moving across fewer buildings.

Eight years below trend: Manhattan averaged about 704 sales a year from 1984 to 2025; the last above-average year was 2018 at 811, and a projected 682 would mark the eighth consecutive year at or below the mean.

Broad-based recovery: Office is "on fire," while retail, condo land, hotels and free-market apartments all strengthen, though Knakal flags 485-x as a drag on the new rental supply the city badly needs.

The regulated outlier: Rent-regulated values sit about 80 percent below peak, and the Rent Guidelines Board froze stabilized renewals starting Oct. 1 even as insurance, labor and utility costs keep climbing.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Velocity gap: The capital, the financing and the confidence have returned; what hasn't is the seller. Until closings climb well above the long-run average, this is a recovery in dollars, not in the churn that signals a market truly back in motion.

Around New York

➥ Robotaxi operators leased nearly 1M SF of US industrial space this year, up from 830K SF since 2022, while quietly scouting Long Island City and the South Bronx.

➥ NYU’s Schack Institute will vacate its 117K SF at 11 West 42nd Street when the lease expires next June, freeing space in a Midtown market now asking $76.98 per foot.

➥ A new lawsuit claims Mayor Mamdani’s pied-à-terre tax is illegal, alleging the city wrongly swept thousands of primary residences into a surcharge meant for high-value second homes.

➥ Developer Eric Schlagman capped a two-decade redevelopment of Tribeca’s 50 Hudson Street, a 26,500 SF building wrapped in the city’s first glass brick facade, then sold most of it for $32.2M.

➥ Prolific Brooklyn developers Joel and Shaindy Schwartz blamed a tax-system glitch for a mortgage delinquency across their multifamily portfolio, a rare public excuse as higher rates squeeze indebted owners.

➥ About 95% of buildings under New York’s carbon cap met its first enforcement deadline, with just 470 of roughly 11,000 market-rate filers over their limits before the 2030 tightening.

➥ Attorney General Letitia James booked her first settlement in a rent-stabilization sweep, as a Brooklyn landlord agreed to offer stabilized leases; the program has returned 131 units and blocked 27 evictions.

Follow the Money

OFFICEMELVILLE B2K Development is in contract to acquire the vacant 180,000 SF former Henry Schein headquarters, planning a mixed-use redevelopment under Melville’s new overlay district.

BROKERAGEMANHATTAN Veteran investment-sales broker Bob Knakal sued developer Charles Cohen over an unpaid commission, a rare public clash between two longtime New York real estate figures.

RESTAURANTWEST VILLAGE Group Hospitality bought the former Sushisamba space at 87 Seventh Avenue South for $7.3M, well below the $13.3M it drew in 2018, choosing ownership over leasing.

RETAILJACKSON HEIGHTS El Pollo Loco leased 2,400 SF for its first East Coast restaurant, taking over a former Burger King space and targeting a 2027 opening.

OFFICEMIDTOWN George Comfort & Sons refinanced its 750K SF 200 Madison Avenue with a $386M New York Life loan, following Havas Health’s 254,118 SF headquarters expansion.

DEVELOPMENTBROOKLYN Education nonprofit Runway Green signed a 60-year lease to build a $60M campus on 7 acres of Floyd Bennett Field, backed by $9.3M in public commitments.

OFFICEUNION SQUARE ZG Capital landed a $66.5M J.P. Morgan refinancing on its fully leased 836-838 Broadway office, retiring a $28.9M loan after a $20M repositioning.

📈 CHART OF THE WEEK

JPMorgan Chase originated 1 in 9 NYC commercial mortgages over the past three years, while the next lender accounted for just 1 in 46, highlighting the market’s concentration among top lenders.