- Manhattan is on pace for roughly $20.3 billion in 2026 investment sales, slightly above 2025, even as the number of properties trading is projected to slip to about 682.
- Office, retail, land, hotels and free-market apartments are all strengthening, while rent-regulated buildings sit about 80% below peak values amid a rent freeze and rising costs.
- With deal counts below the long-term average for an eighth straight year, the recovery’s next phase depends on more owners choosing to sell, not just on bigger deals.
Manhattan investment sales are on track to finish 2026 slightly ahead of last year in dollar terms, but fewer properties are actually changing hands, according to Robert Knakal, founder and CEO of BK Real Estate Advisors, writing in Commercial Observer.
His takeaway: the money is moving faster than the market.
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Dollar Volume vs. Deal Count
Dollar volume is one of the most cited measures of market health, but Knakal argues it can mislead. Rising volume can reflect bigger deals rather than more activity, and Manhattan is currently an example of the latter.
To gauge how active the market really is, BKREA also tracks the number of properties sold, with data going back to 1984.
Knakal, who has sold more than 2,300 buildings over his career, has shared his read on the New York market on CRE Daily’s No Cap podcast.
The Details
Manhattan investment sales totaled $19.914 billion in 2025, per BKREA. Volume reached $10.173 billion in the first half of 2026, with $4.197 billion in Q1 and $5.976 billion in Q2, putting the year on pace for about $20.346 billion.
Deal count is moving the other way. BKREA recorded 693 Manhattan investment property sales in 2025, and 341 sales in the first half of 2026 put this year on pace for roughly 682.
Nearly every sector is improving. Knakal describes office as on fire, with strong leasing, returning investor demand and some former conversion candidates now viable as offices again. Retail is strong, the land market is led by condo development, hotels are thriving with virtually no new supply, and free-market apartments are benefiting from limited new construction.
Manhattan Investment Sales in Historical Context
From 1984 through 2025, Manhattan averaged about 704 property sales a year. The last above-average year was 2018, with 811 trades, and a 682-sale finish would make 2026 the eighth straight year at or below that mark.
The peaks were far higher: 1,197 properties sold in 2012, and dollar volume hit $57.507 billion in 2015. Projected 2026 deal count would sit about 43% below that peak and dollar volume about 65% below, though both are well above 2020’s pandemic low of 385 sales and $11.151 billion.
The pattern fits a market where large assets are trading again, including a surge in Manhattan office tower sales as leasing hits records.
Why It Matters
Rent-regulated multifamily is the conspicuous exception. Knakal estimates values in that sector remain about 80% below peak, and the Rent Guidelines Board has frozen increases on one- and two-year stabilized lease renewals beginning Oct. 1, 2026, even as insurance, labor, maintenance and utility costs climb.
Because apartment buildings are the most common building type in New York, the rent-stabilized squeeze weighs heavily on overall deal counts. Knakal ties that damage to the state’s 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act, and he also calls the 485-x tax incentive a major impediment to new rental production.
What’s Next
Capital is returning, financing is more available and investors are more confident, but owners still aren’t selling in historically normal numbers. In Knakal’s view, the market doesn’t just need larger transactions; it needs more sellers.
The signal to watch is deal count. When annual sales move meaningfully above the roughly 704-property long-term average, the recovery will have entered a new phase.
