Q3 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

CRE investors want to deploy capital, but higher rates and stubborn pricing are keeping many on the sidelines.

Nina Dale
September 08, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the Q3 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index. This quarter’s report shows investor sentiment remains largely stagnant as higher borrowing costs, tighter access to capital, and a persistent pricing gap continue to keep transaction activity muted.

🎙️ This Week on No Cap: Why America is still 10 million homes short, according to The Community Builders' CEO. (Thanks to our sponsor, Warespace)

CRE Trivia 🧠

Which 2005 Supreme Court ruling expanded government power to seize private property for private economic development?

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH INVESTNEXT INC

Raising capital today looks different than it did a year ago. We've compiled an exclusive analysis of the changing CRE fundraising landscape. Here’s what you’ll gain…

Strategies to Accelerate Fundraising Cycles: Discover how to strengthen your fundraising approach and capture new investment opportunities.

Surpass Investor Expectations: Transform complex processes into efficient, transparent tools for investor relations.

Enhanced Investor Relationships: Build stronger partnerships and increase investor confidence.

Download now for exclusive insights from industry leaders.

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

7,718.60

Pct Chg:
-0.38%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

839.38

Pct Chg:
-0.71%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.784%

Pct Chg:
+0.022%

CME Term SOFR

1-Month

3.74%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 09/04/2026 market close.

Investor Sentiment

Q3 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The latest Q3 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear & Greed Index shows investors stuck between a desire to deploy capital and market conditions that still make deals difficult to pencil. The overall index slipped to 55, keeping CRE at the edge of stagnant territory.

By the numbers: Investors are still adding more exposure than they’re cutting, but enthusiasm for the next six months continues to fade. Just 37% expect to increase CRE exposure, the lowest share in the survey’s history, while 53% expect to hold steady.

For context: Index values below 45 indicate a contracting CRE market, while readings above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a stagnant market.

Capital gets harder to access: Financing conditions deteriorated again in Q3, with 32% of investors reporting that capital became harder to access, up from 19% last quarter. Multifamily faces the greatest pressure, with its Access to Capital Index falling to 31, compared with 35 for office, 39 for industrial and 43 for retail.

Rates take center stage: Interest rates and the cost of capital are now the #1 concern across all four CRE sectors, overtaking the sector-specific issues that dominated earlier this year. Six months ago, multifamily and industrial investors were more concerned about oversupply, while office investors pointed to weak tenant demand.

The pricing gap persists: Investors say current cap rates remain too low to justify aggressive deployment. Across CRE, cap rates would need to rise about 64 bps on average, implying an 11%–12% decline in asset values at current interest rates. Without meaningful rate relief, stronger NOI growth or lower prices, transaction activity is likely to remain muted.

Multifamily feels the squeeze: Multifamily sentiment slipped back into stagnant territory, with 16% of investors decreasing exposure, up from 11% last quarter. Capital conditions are particularly challenging: 37% of multifamily investors said access worsened during Q3, the highest share in more than two years.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Big picture: CRE investors haven’t turned bearish, but they aren’t getting much more aggressive either. Tighter capital and high borrowing costs are keeping the market stuck in neutral.

📥 Get the full sector-by-sector breakdown, cap rate data, and investor commentary in the complete Q326 Fear & Greed report.

A MESSAGE FROM STARBOARD

Your Firm's Acquisitions Edge, Compounded With AI

Every firm you bid against has AI. The ones winning taught it their deal history. Yours still starts from zero.

Starboard is the acquisitions platform built on everything you know: your deal history, your buy box, your judgment encoded. Underwriting and memos in your templates. Market data from MSCI Real Capital Analytics. Every number cited to the cell. Send a deal and see it live.

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

✍️ Editor’s Picks

Move first: Access independent, rating-agency-aligned CMBS and CRE data, surveillance, and research from Morningstar Credit Analytics, built for speed. Get started with free access. (Sponsored)
Global retreat: Global REITs fell 2.8% in August amid geopolitical and interest-rate pressures, while North America continued to lead with a 16.3% year-to-date return, driven by lodging/resorts and data centers.
Liquidity squeeze: BCRED capped third-quarter repurchases at 5% after investor requests reached $4.3B, highlighting persistent redemption pressure despite strong liquidity and improving credit metrics.
Job rebound: August payrolls surged by 162,000, easing concerns about labor weakness and supporting rental demand, but slowing wage growth and elevated inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Mortgage squeeze: Higher-for-longer mortgage rates are keeping buyers in rentals, supporting multifamily demand and rents even as elevated borrowing costs pressure owners and oversupplied Sun Belt markets.
Football financing: Top 25 college football campuses are near $6.1B of securitized student-housing debt, nearly double the $3.4B tied to the top academic universities.
Capital unlocked: HUD is loosening Section 18 rules to attract private capital into public housing, potentially unlocking billions for repairs, redevelopment and affordable housing.
Journal financing: Namdar Group secured $390M to build Park Tower, a 1,049-unit mixed-use project in Jersey City’s Journal Square, backed by strong demand and Manhattan transit access.

🏭 Industrial

Triangle expansion: Merritt Properties broke ground on a 790,000 SF industrial park in Cary, N.C., with the first phase delivering 201,000 SF by late 2027.
Capital play: Blue Owl plans to launch a publicly traded data center REIT seeded with about $6.5B of assets, tapping investor demand fueled by the AI infrastructure boom.
Boundary battle: Miami-Dade commissioners overturned the mayor’s veto to approve Kelly Tractor’s 2.7M SF headquarters on 240+ acres beyond the Urban Development Boundary, despite environmental concerns.
Silicon Valley: Lone Star and partners paid more than $1.1B for a 2.2M SF Silicon Valley R&D portfolio, betting on demand from AI, robotics and advanced technology tenants.

🏬 RETAIL

Retail reset: Colliers’ ICSC Florida takeaways show how AI, data, experiential retail and strong investor demand are reshaping Florida’s retail market, while relationships remain key to closing deals.
Debt reset: NRT secured a $650M refinancing for 549 KinderCare properties totaling 4M SF across 37 states, replacing a maturing CMBS loan amid changing occupancy terms and strong childcare demand.
Traffic wobble: Buc-ee’s lost roughly 30M visits as its share of convenience-store trips fell, challenging the momentum behind its rapid national expansion.

🏢 OFFICE

Gusto expands: Gusto doubled its Penn 1 footprint to 76,000 SF with a 13-year expansion and five-year renewal, underscoring strong demand in Midtown’s tightening Class A office market.
Office rebound: CBRE’s 2026 benchmark finds peak office occupancy above pre-pandemic levels, with firms prioritizing quality, collaboration, sustainability and AI over simply reducing space.
HQ shift: Burlington is moving its headquarters to Philadelphia and buying Brandywine’s 441K SF office at Schuylkill Yards for $240M, bringing 2,000 workers and $370M in investment.
Office repositioning: BXP acquired two Waltham office buildings for $30M following rezoning that could enable multifamily development, expanding its nearly 4M SF suburban Boston portfolio.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Hotel surge: Dallas’ Republican Midterm Convention could drive more than 5,000 hotel room bookings, concentrating demand around downtown and the American Airlines Center.
Travel shifts: Hotels are adapting to shorter booking windows, shifting flight patterns and rising “bleisure” demand by offering more flexible, personalized experiences to win repeat corporate travelers.
Entertainment boom: Arizona Land Consulting is planning a $6B–$10B, 900-acre west Phoenix development featuring a film studio, amusement parks, hotels, retail, multifamily and data centers.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

According to the Q326 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index, investors believe value-add/repositioning will offer the best risk-adjusted return over the next 12 months.

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

Kelo v. City of New London. The 5-4 decision sparked one of the largest legislative backlashes to a Supreme Court ruling in modern history, prompting over 40 states to restrict eminent domain.