VNQ’s 18-Year July Streak Makes REITs a Seasonal Standout

VNQ and US REITs haven’t posted a July loss since 2008, extending a rare seasonal streak despite persistent rate headwinds.

July 2, 2026

Valerija I.

The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) has gained every July since 2008, posting an 18-0 win streak, per FactSet and MarketWatch.
Despite trailing Treasury yields, REITs offer the highest sector dividends versus S&P 500 sector peers, with technicals suggesting a breakout could be imminent.
BTIG and J.P. Morgan spotlight Prologis, Regency Centers, D.R. Horton, and EPR Properties as sector leaders entering July.

Key Takeaways

REITs’ Unmatched July Streak

Real estate investment trusts may not get the hype of tech in July, but data shows they edge out the Nasdaq-100’s summer record. According to MarketWatch, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) has posted positive returns in every July since the 2008 financial crisis, beating out the Nasdaq-100’s 17 positive Julys over that span. VNQ’s average July gain stands at 3.8% per FactSet. As the calendar flips to July 2026, technical analysts say REITs are poised for another strong showing, continuing a streak that’s flown largely under the radar—until now.

For CRE professionals, this seasonality isn’t just a trivia point. It’s a consistent pattern that deserves a spot on every asset manager’s summer radar, especially as other equity sectors stall or sputter amid rate uncertainty.

The Details

BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky sees a strong technical setup for real estate. VNQ trades just below multi-year resistance near $100. A weekly close above that level could lift shares toward $110–$115. Those levels match the fund’s late 2021 and 2022 highs.

VNQ yields 3.59%, topping every other S&P 500 sector ETF. However, it still trails the 10-year Treasury’s 4.48% yield.

On July’s first trading day, VNQ gained 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.5%. BTIG’s top July picks include Prologis, Regency Centers, and D.R. Horton. D.R. Horton is not part of VNQ’s portfolio. Separately, J.P. Morgan added EPR Properties to its Analyst Focus List. The bank cited its resilient 6.4% dividend yield.

Seasonality Outshines Volatility

Tech stocks often dominate July headlines. However, real estate has delivered a stronger seasonal pattern. Since 2008, VNQ has never posted a July loss. Its average July return also beats many competing strategies.

Meanwhile, higher rates and persistent inflation pressured income-focused stocks throughout 2024 and 2025. Those conditions slowed fund flows into REITs and raised near-term concerns. That caution also surfaced earlier this year as commercial property transactions weakened before seasonal momentum improved. Even so, MarketWatch says VNQ’s technical setup and steady dividend support the bullish case. The ETF also sits near a key resistance level.

Technical managers may treat July’s record as a reason to stay bullish. Meanwhile, income investors continue comparing REIT yields with government bonds.

Why It Matters

REIT returns remain closely tied to interest rate expectations. High Treasury yields continue offering investors attractive alternatives. The 10-year Treasury currently yields 4.48%. That remains well above VNQ’s dividend yield.

This yield gap has often pressured REIT inflows. It has also caused underperformance against other income investments. Even so, VNQ remains the only sector ETF without a July loss since the financial crisis. That record highlights the value of seasonal trends alongside fundamentals.

Analysts remain optimistic. A move above $100 could send VNQ toward $110–$115. That implies more than 10% upside from recent levels. BTIG and J.P. Morgan also favor Prologis, Regency Centers, D.R. Horton, and EPR Properties. Their picks highlight strength across industrial, retail, and alternative real estate.

Five-year weekly chart of Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) showing the fund approaching key resistance near the $100 level.

For CRE investors, these companies show where institutional money is moving this quarter. Historical July strength could attract momentum and income buyers. Still, cautious managers will keep comparing REIT yields with Treasury returns.

What’s Next

VNQ has already started July with gains. It also trades just below major resistance. A breakout above $100 could quickly strengthen momentum. Analysts will watch for confirmation in the coming weeks. Steady dividends could also attract more income-focused investors while broader market volatility continues.

Beyond VNQ, Prologis, Regency Centers, and EPR Properties may draw additional interest. Investors value their defensive qualities and growth potential. If REIT indexes reach new multi-year highs, July’s seasonal trend will gain another test. A strong result could help REITs outperform technology in the near term.