- CRE rebound in 2025 saw price growth, transaction counts, and deal sizes all rise together for the first time since 2021.
- Q4 2025 transaction volume was only 5% below pre-pandemic levels, but the number of properties sold remained 15% lower than in 2019.
- Median price per PSF jumped 53% from Q4 2019, while median deal size increased 41%.
- Future momentum for the CRE rebound depends on interest rates, capital, and investor confidence in 2026.
Broad-Based CRE Rebound in 2025
Altus Group reports that in 2025, US commercial real estate experienced its first broad-based market recovery in years, according to Reonomy data. For the first time since 2021, all major transaction metrics—price per PSF, transaction count, average building size, and overall deal size—rose in tandem, ending a multi-year trend of uneven gains and underlying weakness.
This coordinated uptick sharply contrasts with 2024, when rising dollar volumes masked declining property sales as price per PSF escalated. Heading into 2025, market momentum clearly shifted, signaling a true CRE rebound.
Mixed Signals Before the Upturn
Historically, dollar volume is the most visible CRE metric, but it alone can’t capture shifts in activity. After a volatile period between 2020 and 2024, when transaction components often diverged, 2025 marked a synchronized uptrend. Price per PSF recovered, deal volume expanded, and the number and size of properties transacted all increased.
In 2024, higher prices and slightly larger buildings couldn’t offset lower deal counts, with capital moving toward premium assets. A similar pattern emerged earlier in the cycle, when large institutional deals helped lift overall CRE investment totals even as broader transaction activity remained muted. That changed in 2025, as more widespread confidence and activity fueled the CRE rebound.
Measured Progress Toward Full Recovery
Despite 2025’s gains, the market hasn’t fully returned to pre-pandemic norms. Four-quarter trailing dollar volume in Q4 2025 was just shy of Q4 2019, but deal counts were still lagging by double digits and median buildings were smaller. Notably, a 53% leap in price per PSF and a 41% increase in median deal size closed the gap.
The CRE rebound thus reflected both appreciation and a gradual return of transactional activity, signaling meaningful progress without reaching full historical benchmarks yet.
What’s Next for CRE Rebound
The CRE rebound in 2025 points to late 2023 and early 2024 as the market’s trough, with all metrics now moving upward. Whether this recovery broadens through 2026 depends on continued investor confidence, stable interest rates, and accessible capital. As it stands, CRE market fundamentals appear stronger and more unified than at any point since the pandemic era began.
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