- Consumer spending was the main driver of US GDP growth in 2025, outpacing AI investments.
- AI-related capital expenditures contributed under 40% to total growth, with further reductions after import adjustments.
- Software and computer investments were the leading AI-related GDP contributors, while imports diluted their impact.
- US GDP grew 4.3% annually in Q3 2025, with ongoing consumer strength expected into 2026.
Consumer Power Remains Key
According to Globe St, despite widespread focus on AI as a catalyst for economic expansion, a new MRB Partners analysis highlights that consumer spending remained the core engine of US GDP growth last year. Data from 2025 show household consumption as the largest contributor, surpassing capital expenditure on artificial intelligence initiatives.
AI Investment Plays Second Fiddle
AI-related investments—such as software, computers, and data centers—added to US economic growth in 2025. However, their overall impact fell short due to the high volume of imported equipment. GDP excludes imports, reducing the value of AI capital expenditures. After import adjustments, AI contributed only 20% to 25% of real GDP growth between Q1 and Q3. That figure is roughly half the initial, unadjusted estimate.
Unexpected Economic Strength
The overall US economy outperformed expectations, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 and 3.3% in Q2 2025, despite a contraction in the first quarter. Forecasts for 2026 show improving conditions, suggesting the economy may carry this momentum forward. Analysts expect consumer spending to remain a key economic pillar in 2026, supported by fiscal policy even as income growth moderates among broader households.
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