- In total, Shovels identified 4,734 nationwide CRE new construction permits in Q1 2026.
- On a same-store basis, CRE permits dropped 16% year-over-year in Q1 2026 across 385 jurisdictions with CRE activity in both periods.
- Multifamily led the decline, falling 29% YoY, while office posted a modest gain at +4%.
- Texas held the top spot but declined 19% YoY (895 to 723 same-store permits), while Florida fell 46% (809 to 441).
- North Carolina held essentially flat at +0.2% (405 to 406 same-store permits), emerging as one of the most resilient Sun Belt markets.
- New York posted a strong rebound, up 16% YoY (165 to 191 same-store permits).
Multifamily and Data Centers Lead the Pullback
On a same-store basis, multifamily permits fell 29% YoY (2,346 to 1,661), making it the largest contributor to the overall decline. Data centers dropped 26% (42 to 31), though from a smaller baseline. Special purpose permits declined 12% (590 to 521).
Meanwhile, office permits bucked the trend with a 4% increase (277 to 288), and mixed-use (non-MF) edged up 7% (62 to 66). Retail and industrial each dipped about 5%, showing relative resilience compared to multifamily.
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| Vertical | Q1 2025 (Same-Store) | Q1 2026 (Same-Store) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 2,346 | 1,661 | -29% |
| Mixed-Use (MF) | 407 | 372 | -9% |
| Retail | 958 | 907 | -5% |
| Industrial | 602 | 570 | -5% |
| Office | 277 | 288 | +4% |
| Hospitality | 89 | 86 | -3% |
| Mixed-Use (Non-MF) | 62 | 66 | +7% |
| Data Center | 42 | 31 | -26% |
| Special Purpose | 590 | 521 | -12% |
Hot and Cold States: Sun Belt Cools, Pockets of Resilience Emerge
Q1 2026 revealed a clear geographic reshuffle in CRE permitting. Traditional Sun Belt leaders cooled sharply, with Florida posting the steepest pullback among major states (down 46% YoY) and Texas declining 19% despite remaining the top state by permit volume. California also dropped 21%.
But the slowdown was not uniform: North Carolina held essentially flat (+0.2%), supported by continued activity in the Raleigh-Durham corridor, while New York rebounded (+16%) and Oregon also grew (+10%). Major filings help explain the divergence, including a $78M multifamily development on Louisburg Road in Raleigh, a $117M school building in New York, and a $350M Amazon data center in Mesa, AZ.
| State | Q1 2025 (Same-Store) | Q1 2026 (Same-Store) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 895 | 723 | -19% |
| CA | 687 | 546 | -21% |
| FL | 809 | 441 | -46% |
| NC | 405 | 406 | +0.2% |
| CO | 243 | 236 | -3% |
| NY | 165 | 191 | +16% |
| OH | 237 | 181 | -24% |
| WA | 195 | 167 | -14% |
| VA | 221 | 161 | -27% |
| TN | 158 | 157 | -1% |
| AZ | 167 | 152 | -9% |
What’s in the Pipeline
About 47% of Q1 2026 permits are still in review, 29% are active, and 15% have already reached final status. A significant share of projects are still in early approvals, indicating that construction activity from these filings will play out over the next 12–18 months.
Notable Permits Pulled by Vertical
To put the quarter’s trends in context, here are standout permits from each CRE vertical. They include examples of where the biggest dollars are being committed and which project types are still moving through local approvals:
- Multifamily – $294M — Waiakoa Block D affordable housing, 415 Cooke St, Honolulu, HI
- Industrial – $60M — New wastewater treatment plant, Fort Worth, TX (Burns & McDonnell Engineering Co.)
- Retail – $25M — Flight tower restaurant foundation, Ontario, CA (HMC Architects)
- Office – $19M — 12-story commercial office building, Brooklyn, NY
- Hospitality – $52M — Resort restaurant building, Las Vegas, NV
- Data Center – $350M — Amazon data center, Mesa, AZ (Ryan Companies)
- Mixed-Use (MF) – $207M — 1,017-unit mixed-use tower, Jersey City, NJ
- Special Purpose – $247M — Municipal courthouse, Columbus, OH (Gilbane Building Co.)
- Mixed-Use (Non-MF) – $25M — 832K sq ft industrial and office space, UT (Butler Design Group)
The Bottom Line
Commercial construction permitting slowed meaningfully in Q1 2026, but the story isn’t just about volume. It’s about where capital is moving. North Carolina and select Northeast metros are holding steady or growing while traditional Sun Belt hotspots like Texas and Florida are cooling.
For developers and investors tracking early-cycle signals, permit data offers a 12–18-month leading indicator of where supply is actually headed. Explore the full dataset on the interactive Q1 2026 CRE Permits Map, filterable by vertical, status, and geography.
How We Built This Dataset
Shovels collects and standardizes building permit records from over 4,000 jurisdictions across the United States. For this analysis, we filtered to permits flagged as new construction and classified each one into a CRE vertical (multifamily, industrial, retail, office, hospitality, data center, mixed-use, or special purpose) based on keyword matching against the permit description, type, and subtype fields filed by the applicant.
We applied exclusions to remove residential permits (single-family, townhomes, ADUs), tenant improvements, interior renovations, temporary structures, standalone trade permits (electrical, plumbing, HVAC), and site-only work (grading, signage, retaining walls). Permits were then deduplicated at the address level within each quarter and vertical, keeping the most informative record when multiple filings existed for the same project.
