- JLL’s Bid Intensity Index posted its sharpest monthly gain in twelve months in June 2026. July brought the second most unique bidders since the index began.
- Lenders are now competing harder than buyers to deploy capital, per JLL. Credit is flowing again from CMBS, insurance companies, agencies, and debt funds.
- Retail and industrial are drawing the most capital. Multifamily remains the weakest sector as it absorbs a historic wave of new supply.
Liquidity has returned to commercial real estate capital markets, and transaction activity is climbing with it. JLL’s latest reading shows investor bidding and lender competition both running well above year-ago levels. The firm’s proprietary indices point to deepening capital and better alignment between financing and deals.
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Credit Leads the Recovery
Credit markets recovered first, and investment sales are now following, per JLL. The Bid Intensity Index has climbed well above year-ago levels. That momentum extends an earlier rebound, when multifamily led CRE bidding as transaction competition strengthened across property sectors. In June 2026, it posted its sharpest monthly improvement in twelve months. July recorded the second highest unique bidder count since the index launched five years ago.
Lauro Ferroni, JLL’s head of capital markets research for the Americas, called credit availability the tone-setter for liquidity. He said the credit measure has worked as a leading indicator for bidding.
Lenders Still Outbid Buyers
Competition among lenders sits well above prior record highs, according to JLL. The Credit Intensity Index remains materially elevated, with lenders pushing harder than buyers to place capital. That dynamic favors borrowers. Credit is flowing again from CMBS, insurance companies, government agencies, and debt funds. That was not the case in the first years after the pandemic. Sector distress and then higher rates from 2022 had kept capital cautious. Ferroni said many lenders simply want to grow their real estate books, partly for the yield.
The Details
Investors are moving hardest into retail and industrial, per JLL. Retail marks a shift, since e-commerce had made it one of the weakest sectors during the pandemic. Owners now like the returns and show little interest in selling. That keeps the sector competitive. Industrial has run strong for years on e-commerce demand. Reshoring adds to it. Firms are moving manufacturing closer to the US to shorten lead times and cut supply-chain and tariff risk. A midyear CBRE report put manufacturing leasing up 27% year over year.
Multifamily Lags the Rebound
Multifamily stays the weakest sector for both bidding and credit, per JLL. The sector is still absorbing a historic supply of new construction. National vacancies are finally easing, but new properties drive most of that move. Stabilized vacancies, which strip out units still in lease-up, rose 34 basis points in the second quarter, per CoStar. The split matters for anyone underwriting apartments today. Capital is rewarding sectors with tighter supply and steadier demand.
What’s Next
Ferroni sees no major warning signs for CRE competition and expects gradual, not explosive, growth. He said plenty of room remains for the recovery to run. The market does not look frothy, in his view. One factor to watch is bond yields. A recent runup, especially in the US, still weighs on the bid-ask spread. Ferroni noted that the US Treasury’s move to buy long-term bonds could support underwriting and investor confidence. Whether deep capital keeps outweighing higher borrowing costs will shape the indices from here.
