- None of the Fed’s 12 districts reported an overall decline in the October 2026 Beige Book: two saw moderate growth, three modest, four slight and three no significant change.
- New York led commercial real estate on strong office leasing, Atlanta and Kansas City reported gains, and Richmond’s commercial construction slowed while Dallas loan volume grew more slowly.
- Oxford Economics expects two more hikes this year, yet futures priced a 71.8% chance of a hold on Oct. 28 and 67.4% odds of a quarter-point rise by Dec. 9.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book, released in October, shows a steady economy, with leasing and lending strong in places, but price pressures may keep borrowing costs elevated, GlobeSt reported.
No district reported an overall decline, though GlobeSt noted that manufacturing and wealthier households supplied much of the growth instead of a broad pickup.
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Growth Is Narrow
Among the Fed’s 12 districts, two described moderate growth, three modest growth, four slight growth and three no significant change, GlobeSt reported. Consumer spending was largely flat in most districts, GlobeSt reported, and over half of them said wealthier households were behind what spending there was.
That split matters for CRE because growth alone does not guarantee demand across every property type or market.
Where CRE Is Moving
New York stood out, with a hot office leasing market, per the Beige Book as summarized by GlobeSt. Atlanta reported a modest rise in CRE activity and Kansas City moderate growth.
Boston called activity roughly stable on balance and San Francisco described conditions as steady on net, per GlobeSt. Little changed in Chicago, St. Louis or Minneapolis.
GlobeSt reported that Richmond saw commercial construction slow and borrowers there focus harder on financing costs. Dallas said loan volume kept rising, only more slowly.
Inflation Drives the Rate Debate
GlobeSt reported that Oxford Economics called rising prices a common theme across the districts, and it forecasts two more Fed hikes this year, the next at the end of October.
Traders were less sure. As of Oct. 15, CME Group’s FedWatch tool put the odds of a hold at the Oct. 28 meeting at 71.8%, GlobeSt reported, compared with 66.8% a day before and 82.3% a week before.
For the Dec. 9 meeting, FedWatch priced a 67.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and 25.4% for a cumulative 50-basis-point move.
Why It Matters
The gap between forecasters and traders is mostly about timing, GlobeSt reported, but either path leaves little certainty about what the next loan will cost. A rate hike already pressures leveraged owners, as CRE Daily reported for hotels.
CRE Daily’s Beige Book coverage has also flagged data centers as a growth driver, a reminder that strength is concentrated.
What’s Next
The Oct. 28 Fed meeting is the first test of whether tightening resumes now or waits until December. Lenders will likely price in that uncertainty until the data settles.
Another read on leasing is the New York office market, which GlobeSt cited as the standout district for CRE.
