Green Street Index Reveals Sector-Based CRE Pricing Gains

Sectors Drive Divergence in Pricing

According to Green Street’s June 2026 data reported by GlobeSt, US commercial property prices are exiting the sharp post-2022 downturn, but the story is less about broad recovery and more about asset-specific repricing. The Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) held flat in June, climbing 4.1% over the past 12 months, yet values remain 14% below the cycle peak set in 2022. Much of this rebound is tied to cap rates, which remain sticky as interest rates stay elevated, forcing investors to target asset classes where rent growth or investor demand can still drive pricing. The data reflects a market with little room for speculative bets and limited room to maneuver, making capital allocation both more nuanced and more tactical than at any time in recent memory.

The Details

Green Street’s CPPI captures real-time negotiated prices for institutional-quality assets tracked by US REITs. June’s all-property index was unchanged for the month. Office remains the laggard, with values 34% below their 2022 peak but up roughly 5% in the last year as bid-ask spreads narrow. Retail shows unexpected resilience: mall values are down just 1% from peak and up 5% year-over-year, while strip retail leads with a 9% annual gain and sits only 2% off all-time highs. Industrial maintains top-tier performance, with a sector index at 225.5—representing a 4% annual increase, though still 11% below its 2022 peak. Apartments are up just 3% since June 2025, with values 19% below peak. Niche asset classes such as student housing (-4% from peak, +3% YOY), manufactured housing (+5% YOY, near an index value of 300), and self-storage (+4% YOY, though 22% off peak) highlight a bifurcated recovery driven by sector-specific fundamentals.

Investor Playbooks Shift Amid Stubborn Rates

Investors are reallocating capital rather than betting on a broad market rebound.

Office values remain depressed, but prices rose 5% year over year as buyers target select opportunities. Trophy assets continue trading, while commodity office properties lag. Retail’s recovery has surprised many investors. Strip centers and select malls are nearing pre-pandemic pricing levels. Industrial remains a top-performing sector despite slower appreciation. Logistics demand continues to support pricing. Housing performance is increasingly fragmented. Manufactured housing and student housing are outperforming traditional apartments. The CPPI’s weighting reflects this resilience, with retail and healthcare maintaining stronger fundamentals than many sectors.

Capital Deployments Narrow to Growth Niches

Slow pricing growth and elevated cap rates are reshaping investment strategies across CRE. Investors are increasingly targeting property-specific and submarket-driven opportunities instead of broad sector bets.

Specialty sectors highlight this shift. Healthcare assets gained 5% year over year but remain 11% below 2022 peaks, according to Green Street. Data centers also rose 5% annually, though values remain 7% below prior highs. Lodging prices increased 3% but still sit 9% below peak levels.

Institutional capital continues flowing to retail, industrial, manufactured housing, and self-storage opportunities. Green Street’s Peter Rothemund described recent price gains as “modest” as cap rates remain sticky and borrowing costs elevated. In this market, submarket expertise and disciplined underwriting are becoming key differentiators.

Why It Matters

Green Street’s CPPI suggests the US CRE market has likely bottomed, but a broad recovery remains elusive. Property prices rose 4.1% year over year, yet values remain well below 2022 peaks across several sectors.

Office values remain 34% below peak levels, while apartments and net lease assets are down 19% and 18%, respectively. Because the CPPI tracks negotiated pricing rather than closed deals, it offers an early view of capital flows and investor sentiment.

Higher interest rates continue limiting broad-based appreciation and keeping cap rates elevated. Investors are increasingly focusing on sectors with durable demand drivers, including retail, industrial, and manufactured housing.

Quick rebounds appear unlikely in the current environment. Performance will depend on asset selection, local market fundamentals, and underwriting discipline.

What’s Next

Barring a material drop in interest rates, investors should expect the US commercial property market to remain in this narrow trading range for the near term. Green Street’s CPPI will likely continue to highlight isolated sector gains—particularly in retail, industrial, and select housing types—while office and some income-oriented assets lag. Look for investors to double down on specialist strategies and submarket plays, as broader price expansion appears unlikely until borrowing costs ease. With macro headwinds persisting, the spread between favored and challenged sectors could widen further, making disciplined underwriting and tactical capital deployment more important than ever for CRE professionals targeting outperformance in late 2026 and beyond.