- Yardi Matrix raised its multifamily supply forecast by ~2% for 2025–2026 and 2.9% for 2027.
- 2025 and 2026 completions now expected at 547,779 and 430,061 units, respectively.
- The under-construction pipeline declined 16.4% year-over-year but remains above 1M units.
- New supply is projected to bottom in 2027 before rebounding through 2030.
Near-Term Multifamily Supply Upgrades
Yardi Matrix raised its multifamily supply forecast for 2025 and 2026 by about 2%. It now expects 547,779 units to deliver in 2025 and 430,061 in 2026. The revision comes from a larger-than-expected under-construction pipeline by mid-2025. This increase holds despite a sharp year-over-year decline in construction activity.
The 2027 forecast also rose by 2.9%. Strong construction starts through mid-2025 helped support the higher estimate for that year.
Understanding the Pipeline Shift
The under-construction multifamily supply pipeline sits at 1.027M units, down 16.4% compared to last year. Pre-leased units in the pipeline decreased 21% year-over-year, suggesting much of this inventory will deliver in the next nine months. Meanwhile, units still not in pre-lease will mainly deliver in late 2026 and 2027, supporting Yardi Matrix’s multifamily supply forecast upgrades for those years.
Key Sector Trends
2024 marked a multifamily completions peak at nearly 670,000 units, a 50.6% jump from 2021. Market rate deliveries led the surge but are projected to decline 37.5% by 2026. Meanwhile, federal policy changes—including expanded Low-Income Housing Tax Credits—could buoy affordable completions over coming years.
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Construction Activity and Timelines
So far in 2025, construction starts remain on pace with last year. Yardi Matrix expects a modest reduction in starts for the back half of 2025, with the multifamily supply forecast calling for a 2027 low point near 360,000 units. This outlook supports recent expectations that completions will stay high despite slower construction timelines. Should starts hold steady or rise, supply estimates for 2027 may see further upward revisions. Construction durations have lengthened, with completion times for garden and mid-rise properties hitting or nearing record highs.
Long-Term Multifamily Supply Forecast
Longer-term projections for multifamily supply—for 2028 through 2030—are unchanged. Yardi Matrix expects economic conditions and policy support to enable a rebound in development, pushing supply back up to over 450,000 units by 2030. The planned and prospective pipelines are also expanding, indicating sustained developer interest in new multifamily projects.
What’s Next
Multifamily supply dynamics remain in flux, with near-term expectations revised upward but longer-term growth steady. Developers and investors will watch construction start trends and policy changes closely as they shape the evolving multifamily supply landscape through the rest of the decade.
