- Apartment sales fell 22% year over year in November, totaling $11.3B in transaction volume.
- Multifamily property prices declined 1.4%, reversing gains seen during the summer.
- Individual asset trades dropped 37%, while portfolio activity rose 56%, buoying overall numbers.
- Industry expectations for a 2025 rebound fell short, with many now eyeing 2026 for potential recovery.
November Slump
Multifamily property sales took a hit in November, dropping 22% compared to the same month last year, reports MultifamilyDive. Total transaction volume hit $11.3B, as individual asset sales fell sharply despite a 56% rise in portfolio activity.
Mid- and high-rise properties saw some resilience, with sales up 22% to $5.7B. In contrast, garden-style apartment trades dropped 43% to $5.6B — a notable reversal from their usual dominance in multifamily deals.
Values Under Pressure
Apartment prices continued to slide, with MSCI’s index showing a 1.4% annual decline in multifamily values. The rate of depreciation accelerated after some stabilization during the summer, raising concerns that the market’s recovery may have stalled.
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Shortfall In Sight
By the end of November, the market was still 10% short of 2024’s full-year transaction total. Hitting last year’s numbers would require $15B in December deals — a tough lift, representing a 25% drop compared to December 2024.
Industry sentiment reflects the slowdown. Investors hoped 2025 would be a pivot year, but market volatility and tight lending kept deal volume below expectations.
Outlook: Slow Into 2026
Real estate leaders suggest the softness may persist well into 2026. “Honestly, it’s a very difficult sellers’ market,” said Collin Ross of Madison Communities. However, some see opportunity on the buy side, as fewer deals may lead to better pricing for those with capital.
Optimism remains in select markets. San Francisco, for instance, is attracting renewed investor interest, particularly as the AI sector expands. “There’s capital coming into the city,” said Greg MacDonald of Ballast Investments. “2026 could be a great year [for San Francisco].”
Why It Matters
After a brief bounce-back in summer, multifamily real estate is facing renewed headwinds. With pricing under pressure and activity slower than expected, both buyers and sellers may need to recalibrate expectations heading into 2026.
