Together with

Good morning. Senate Republicans passed a sweeping tax and spending package with significant implications for housing and commercial real estate, just days before President Trump’s July 4th deadline. The bill preserves key industry provisions, introduces new incentives, and sets the stage for high-stakes negotiations in the House.

Today’s issue is sponsored by AirGarage—the all-in-one operating system for parking real estate.

🎙️ This week on No Cap podcast, Rich Hill, Global Head of Real Estate Strategy at Principal, breaks down what’s really driving CRE in 2025—from misunderstood office sentiment to where the smart money is heading next.

Market Snapshot

*Data as of 06/30/2025 market close.

Housing Win

TOGETHER WITH AIRGARAGE

AirGarage Case Study: Showboat Hotel and Resort Boosts Parking NOI

The Opportunity

Located on the Atlantic City boardwalk, The Showboat Resort is the largest non-casino hotel in New Jersey. Operated by Tower Investments, the resort features over 800 rooms, an 80,000-square-foot arcade, a beachfront indoor water park, and a go-kart track, and of course, a nine-story, 2,000-space parking garage and a 500-space overflow lot.

The Problem

The Showboat Resort’s parking operations had become a challenge – cycling through multiple operators while facing the same problems: broken gates, equipment malfunctions, cleanliness complaints, and staffing shortages.

The Solution

AirGarage replaced the legacy parking equipment with a fully integrated gateless system powered by our proprietary license plate recognition (LPR) cameras, mobile payments, dynamic pricing, and real-time reporting. No more ticket jams, broken arms, or cash machines, just a streamlined experience for guests and ownership. Initially, there were concerns about going gateless at a property of this size, but the transition quickly proved its value.

Over the past 6 months, AirGarage has successfully solved their hardware headaches, streamlined accounting and operations, and increased revenue at the property by over 20%.

Check out this video to hear directly from the Buccini Pollin Group team about their experience and let us know if you'd like a custom proposal!

*This is a paid advertisement. Please see the full disclosure at the bottom of the newsletter.

• Small bay boom: Demand for smaller, flexible industrial spaces is driving a nationwide co-warehousing boom as businesses downsize and seek agility. (sponsored)

• REIT pulse: REITweek spotlighted Sunbelt apartment struggles, trade uncertainty slowing industrial leasing, and signs of an office market rebound.

• Ripple effect: Economic struggles among young adults are weakening demand across housing, retail, and office real estate.

• Lumber limits: Despite looming tariff hikes on Canadian imports, US sawmills are operating well below capacity, keeping domestic lumber supply tight.

• Capital surplus: Reinsurance supply exceeded demand at the 2025 mid-year renewals, driving competitive pricing as global capital hit a record $720B.

• Downtown disruption: A wave of curated, amenity-rich developments is redefining where businesses want to be, outshining aging urban cores struggling post-pandemic.

• Immigration impact: Deportations and visa revocations are draining South Florida’s immigrant-heavy construction workforce.

• Sluggish season: US rents rose just 0.2% in June while vacancies hit a record 7%, signaling a sluggish summer leasing season.

• Permit rebound: Multifamily permitting is rebounding from a cyclical low, with markets like Dallas, Houston, and Orlando showing early signs of renewed activity.

• Rust Belt relief: Detroit, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh are among the last affordable housing markets, but rising prices may not spare them for long.

• CEQA rollback: California has enacted sweeping CEQA reforms to fast-track urban infill and affordable housing development.

• Builder boost: Apollo is launching Olympus Housing Capital to finance homebuilders and address the US housing shortage.

• Queens tower: Starwood, Blackstone, and Gotham are backing a $389M loan for a 46-story mixed-use residential tower in Long Island City.

• Bond trouble: Fortress expects to miss a July 15 refinancing deadline on $2B in Amazon-backed warehouse bonds.

• Robot workforce: Amazon now operates over 1M robots in its warehouses, nearly matching its human workforce, as automation reshapes jobs.

• Split economy: Consumers are shopping again, but manufacturers and ports are slowing down.

• Leasing pause: Industrial tenants are delaying lease decisions amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but long-term demand remains strong.

• Southern stability: Sun Belt industrial markets like Savannah, Charlotte, and Atlanta led $1.1B in sales through April.

• Data race: Meta is in talks with Apollo, KKR, and others to raise $29B for AI-focused data centers, as it races to expand its tech footprint.

• Grid stress: AI-fueled demand for data centers is driving record utility spending and reshaping US infrastructure, but rising energy costs could soon test the model.

• Pro push: Home Depot’s SRS Distribution is acquiring GMS Inc. for $4.3B to deepen its reach into the pro contractor market.

• Talent magnet: At Goodyear AirPark in metro Phoenix, developers are adding retail and lifestyle perks, like fast-casual dining and pickleball courts.

• Quiet dominance: Former basketball pro Raanan Katz has quietly built South Florida’s largest privately held shopping center empire.

• Florida frenzy: Retailers are rushing into Florida as financial and tech transplants fuel record-low vacancies and soaring demand.

• Oil drag: Houston’s aging office market is reeling from energy sector consolidation, with rising vacancies, distressed assets, and little hope for older buildings.

• Investor interest: A private investor bought the 116K SF Agoura Hills Business Park as LA remains a top global market for office-focused private capital.

• Snapchat expansion: Snap Inc. is taking over 23andMe’s never-used Sunnyvale HQ, signaling fresh momentum for Silicon Valley's office market.

• Hiring hurdles: CRE's biggest long-term threat isn’t rates or regulation, it's the struggle to attract and retain the next-generation workforce.

• Forever flip: Related Fund Management and Newland Capital have snapped up Forever 21’s former LA HQ for $120M.

• Greek retreat: Goldman Sachs exited its €100M Greek hotel venture, selling three resorts after delays, overruns, and scrapping plans for a Mediterranean brand.

• Portfolio exit: Hyatt is selling 15 Playa resorts to Tortuga Resorts for $2B while retaining long-term management of most properties.

• Prime parcel: With migrants vacated, the Roosevelt Hotel site is now expected to be sold for a major office tower development.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY