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Good morning. The industrial market is shifting gears. Rent growth is slowing, vacancies are climbing, and recent tax reforms are steering manufacturing in a new direction.

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Market Snapshot

*Data as of 11/04/2025 market close.

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• BTR breakdown: Multifamily pros are leading the BTR surge. Register now to learn how they’re scaling, financing, and winning in this fast-growing sector. (sponsored)

• Market split: U.S. commercial real estate is showing a growing gap as big-city deals rebound and smaller properties lose value. 

• Bank divide: Big banks are avoiding CRE trouble with diversified loan books, while smaller lenders face rising risks from maturing loans and higher rates.

• Mega merger: Singapore’s CapitaLand and Mapletree are in early talks to merge, potentially creating a $150B real estate powerhouse.

• Firing phase: U.S. layoffs have surged to their highest level since 2020, signaling a shift from the “low hire, low fire” era. 

• Selective growth: CRE investment surged 15% in Q3 to $111.7B, with office and retail leading growth and single-asset deals driving momentum across asset classes. 

• Progressive upset: Zohran Mamdani won the NYC mayoral race, defeating CRE-backed Cuomo and signaling a sharp left turn in city politics.

• Trade turmoil: A Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s emergency tariffs could reshape trade policy, bringing major cost and supply chain impacts to CRE.

• Developer departure: MAG Partners and CEO MaryAnne Gilmartin have exited the 235-acre Baltimore Peninsula project, leaving its future uncertain.

• Bond backing: A new $350M fund from NewPoint Real Estate Capital and Morgan Properties is reviving municipal bond financing for affordable housing. 

• Cautious optimism: Multifamily operators report improved stability heading into 2025, but rising costs, tighter lending, and economic uncertainty are keeping the sector on edge. 

• Solar stack: Ytech secured a $565M loan from JPMorgan and Sculptor Real Estate to complete a 70-story, solar-powered luxury condo tower in Miami’s Brickell.

• Soft stress: A fractional uptick in Class C multifamily delinquencies is likely statistical noise, not a warning sign, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

• Tenant tensions: Developer Bruce Teitelbaum is seeking to evict Rev. Al Sharpton’s nonprofit from its longtime Harlem HQ to advance the 1,000-unit One45 project.

• Mission capital: CIM Group and Bryant Group Ventures have launched a $1B impact fund backed by Flagstar and Truist to invest in affordable housing nationwide.

• Prologis power: Prologis just dropped $314.5M on 11 fully leased industrial buildings in Brisbane’s Crocker Industrial Park, marking 2025’s largest Bay Area warehouse deal.

• Tech backlash: Amazon’s data center boom is reshaping rural Oregon with jobs and investment, alongside rising costs and growing fears that the prosperity may not last.

• Cold rush: With near-zero vacancy and rising food demand, Greater Philly is heating up for cold storage despite high costs and limited investor appetite.

• Industrial imbalance: West Inland Empire is stabilizing, but the East faces rising vacancies, weak demand, and falling rents.

• Solo strategy: Core Scientific ditched a $9B CoreWeave deal, boosting its stock as investors back its solo AI data center push.

• Fulfillment future: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says AI will accelerate the shift to e-commerce, even as the company expands its grocery delivery services and relies on AWS for growth.

• Breakfast buyout: Denny’s will go private in a $620M all-cash acquisition by a group including TriArtisan Capital, Treville Capital, and major franchisee Yadav Enterprises.

• Local vibes: Urban Outfitters is expanding a new store concept tailored to Gen Z with localized merchandising and sleek redesigns.

• Whole makeover: Whole Foods is testing Amazon app orders for mainstream brands like Pepsi and Tide as part of a deeper integration of tech and grocery services.

• Shrinking deals: Office leasing volume is rebounding, but average lease sizes are down 15–20% as large tenants trim footprints and smaller occupiers dominate. 

• Buyer bargain: Lincoln Property Co. sold Portland’s PacWest tower at a 65% discount, reflecting ongoing struggles in the downtown office market.

• Call center comeback: AT&T is close to leasing 166K SF in Atlanta’s Central Perimeter, marking a boost for a high-vacancy market and signaling renewed office demand.

• Urban flavor: Yum Brands is relocating its global HQ in downtown Louisville’s PNC Tower, a high-profile move that bucks the area’s leasing slowdown.

• Curated growth: The Curator Hotel & Resort Collection is expanding into new California and Colorado markets with the addition of three historic, design-forward independent hotels.

• Talent pipeline: NYU’s new hospitality apprenticeship offers college credit and real-world experience to help students and workers advance faster in hotel careers.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY