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Good morning. Trump is weighing a long-awaited IPO for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially ending over a decade of government control. The move could unlock billions, but also stir uncertainty in the housing market.

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Market Snapshot

*Data as of 05/21/2025 market close.

IPO Watch

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• Cash for space: WareSpace is buying industrial, flex, and retail: 50–250K SF with near-term vacancy. Fast closings, all cash—and a $1/SF broker bonus through 12/31/25. (sponsored)

• Holding steady: CRE posted a strong Q1 as multifamily and industrial deals surged, fueled by lower interest rates and improved lending conditions.

• Renter retention: With high mortgage rates, economic volatility, and affordability barriers, apartment renters are renewing leases at near-record levels.

• REIT resilience: REITs posted stable Q125 results, with strong balance sheets, low leverage, and rising NOI and FFO.

• Project pause: Rising construction costs and tariff-driven uncertainty are fueling a surge in delays and cancellations, with 35% of US contractors reporting major disruptions to projects in Q125.

• Alts in focus: Private placement REITs and BDCs surpassed $85B in combined NAV in Q125, driven by strong fundraising and growing investor demand for alternatives.

• Premium pressure: State Farm is pushing for a 30% home insurance rate hike in California following wildfire losses, fueling public backlash.

• Brooklyn boom: NYC multifamily building permits jumped 65% in Q125, led by Brooklyn, as developers rush to capitalize on tax incentives.

• Resident retention: Camden posted one of its lowest-ever turnover rates in Q125 as renters stayed put amid economic uncertainty.

• Rent vs. own: Apartments.com data shows coastal cities like Miami and NYC remain renter-heavy due to high home costs, while places like Mesa and El Paso favor ownership thanks to greater affordability.

• BTR expansion: Blackstone’s Tricon Residential is opening a 114-home BTR community in Sacramento’s Rancho Cordova, part of a broader $1B push into SFRs.

• Meta retreat: Meta has quietly scaled back its $1B affordable housing pledge in Menlo Park, with little progress since 2022 and no construction timeline set.

• Tariff shelter: Surging tariff uncertainty is driving a boom in bonded warehouse conversions, as companies seek flexibility to delay duty payments and manage volatile trade costs.

• Shipyard revival: South Korea’s Hanwha Group is investing $70M to supercharge ship production at Philadelphia’s Navy Yard, aiming to scale output 10x.

• Motor City move: Stellantis is investing $388M to build a 2 MSF parts distribution center in Metro Detroit as part of a broader strategy to consolidate and modernize its supply chain operations.

• Retail rebound: US retail investment surged 13% YoY in Q125, led by grocery-anchored centers and urban flagship deals, reflecting strong demand for stable, necessity-driven assets.

• Fifth facelift: NYC is investing over $400M to transform Fifth Avenue into a more pedestrian-friendly, globally competitive retail boulevard.

• Consumer retreat: Target’s Q125 earnings fell short as tariffs, consumer backlash over DEI rollbacks, and weak discretionary spending drove a 3.8% sales drop.

• Office optimism: Investor interest in US office properties is rebounding as falling valuations hit a point of renewed appeal.

• Urban strain: CBD office markets continue to struggle in 2025 with 19.2% vacancy, falling rents, and declining development.

• Bay bargain: Hines and Oaktree sold the Ygnacio Center office campus in Walnut Creek for $111M, nearly half its 2018 purchase price.

• Legal footprint: Law firms doubled their US office leasing in Q125 to 3.4 MSF, favoring renewals and long-term deals in top markets like NYC and LA.

• Mega debut: The $1.3B Gaylord Pacific Resort opened in Chula Vista with 1,600 rooms and massive event space, setting off a wave of development and economic momentum in the South Bay.

• Luxury collabs: High-end hotels are boosting revenue and brand prestige by partnering with celebrity chefs and acclaimed restaurateurs to create signature dining experiences.

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📈 CHART OF THE DAY