Q1 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The CRE market is inching forward, though investors remain cautious about deploying capital.

Nina Dale
March 10, 2026

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Good morning. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the Q1 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index. This quarter’s report shows investors remaining cautious and largely on pause, as oversupply concerns grow and improving capital conditions have yet to translate into stronger deal activity.

Today’s issue is sponsored by InvestNext—if LP reporting means spreadsheets and constant double-checking, there’s a better way to run your workflows.

🚨Join CRE Daily + JBREC for a free webinar this Thursday, 3/12, breaking down the Q126 Fear and Greed Report. We’ll unpack what’s driving investor sentiment, where capital’s flowing, and what to watch next.

CRE Trivia 🧠

What word originally appeared at the end of the Hollywood Sign when it was built in 1923?

(Answer at the bottom of the newsletter)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,795.99

Pct Chg:
+0.83%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

813.37

Pct Chg:
+0.15%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.105%

Pct Chg:
-0.027

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

3.67%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 3/9/2026 market close.

Investor Sentiment

Q1 2026 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The latest Q1 2026 JBREC + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index is in, offering a fresh look at investor sentiment across 450+ sector responses.

By the numbers: The Fear & Greed Index came in at 57, signaling mild expansion but slipping slightly from last quarter’s reading. Investor activity remains subdued: 72% of investors kept their exposure unchanged in Q1, the highest share in the survey’s history. Meanwhile, just 38% plan to increase exposure over the next six months, the lowest level ever recorded.

For context: Index values below 45 indicate a contracting commercial real estate (CRE) market, while those above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers.

Sector check-in:

Industrial led all sectors at 62, maintaining its position as CRE’s strongest asset class.
Multifamily followed at 58, though investor sentiment softened amid supply concerns.
Retail landed at 57, supported by steady fundamentals and improving capital access.
Office reached 52, improving slightly but still lagging the other sectors.

Valuations mixed: Valuations diverged across property types. Multifamily values fell about 5% YoY, the steepest decline among major sectors, while office values dropped roughly 3% but showed signs of stabilizing. Meanwhile, industrial and retail values rose about 3% YoY and are expected to post modest gains ahead.

Uneven capital recovery: Capital access is improving, but unevenly across sectors. Industrial and retail investors report better conditions, while multifamily and office still face tighter financing. Still, many expect relief ahead, with more investors anticipating lower borrowing costs and Treasury yields.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Big picture: CRE sentiment remains cautiously positive, but conviction is thin. Investors see opportunity ahead—especially if rates fall—but for now most are staying on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals on pricing, demand, and capital costs before putting money back to work.

Want the full breakdown? 📥Download the complete Q1 2026 Fear & Greed Index Report for sector deep dives, sentiment shifts, and exclusive investor insights.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

ICSC+PROPTECH: The event created for CRE tech and marketing leaders takes place during ICSC LAS VEGAS, the world’s largest CRE event, May 18th – 20th. (sponsored)
Balance returning: CRE fundamentals are beginning to stabilize in 2026 as leasing improves and rent declines ease.
Default reckoning: PIMCO says private debt could face a broad default cycle as higher rates pressure overleveraged borrowers.
Capital rotation: Private credit fundraising fell nearly 50% from its early-2025 peak as capital rotated toward real estate vehicles, with Blackstone REIT raising $786M in Q3.
Oil paralysis: Rising oil prices are adding inflation risk and keeping developers and the Fed in a cautious wait-and-see mode.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Enforcement ripple: Immigration enforcement could pressure distressed apartments as tenant instability complicates operations and loan performance.
Supply crest: LA apartment deliveries will peak in 2025 before construction drops sharply, easing supply pressure.
GenZ magnets: Gen Z renters and buyers are clustering in Sun Belt and Midwest metros with more attainable housing.
Suburban premium: Atlanta’s outer suburbs may soon cost more than the city as housing prices shift across the metro.

🏭 Industrial

Factory tailwind: Industrial demand could accelerate as U.S. reindustrialization drives new manufacturing and supply chain investment.
Megawarehouse deal: An Amazon partner signed a 1M SF warehouse lease in Chicago’s suburbs, one of the region’s largest recent industrial deals.
Portfolio purchase: BGO paid $270M for a 1M SF industrial portfolio, expanding its logistics footprint.

🏬 RETAIL

Sale signals: Whitestone REIT hired bankers after attracting takeover interest from Blackstone and TPG.
Discount retreat: Grocery Outlet is closing three dozen U.S. stores, marking a rare pullback among discount grocers.
Traffic chill: Retail foot traffic fell sharply at the end of February, signaling weaker momentum heading into an uncertain March.

🏢 OFFICE

Maintenance backlog: The U.S. government faces roughly $50B in deferred maintenance across its sprawling property portfolio.
Wynwood vision: Pitbull is planning a “Mr. 305” music-themed office building in Miami’s Wynwood district.
Westwood trades: Multiple Westwood deals include a land sale, Varda Space Industries’ expansion, and new leases from Bathhouse and Amoeba Records.
Agency conversion: A former TSA HQ in D.C. is slated for conversion as part of a slate of new local real estate deals.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Miami debut: MaryAnne Gilmartin’s MAG Partners is eyeing a 1M SF mixed-use project for its Miami debut.
Capex climb: Rising renovation needs and brand standards are pushing hotel owners to increase capital expenditures across aging properties.

A MESSAGE FROM ARBOR REALTY TRUST

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