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Good morning. For years, job growth was a reliable signal for apartment rent gains. But new data suggests that the relationship is fading fast, thanks to shifting market fundamentals and a wave of new supply.

Today’s issue is sponsored by QC Capital—helping investors capture stable returns in one of CRE’s fastest-growing sectors.

📊Our Q4 2025 Burns + CRE Daily Fear & Greed Index is now available. Explore investor sentiment, capital access, and sector-level outlooks shaping the 2026 CRE landscape.

CRE Trivia 🧠

Which CRE sectors historically recover first following a Fed rate-cutting cycle?

(Answer at the bottom of the newsletter)

Market Snapshot

*Data as of 12/26/2025 market close.

Market Shift

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• Due diligence made simple: Blew’s in-house survey team ensures your deals meet 2026 ALTA/NSPS requirements with reliable, nationwide due diligence support across every asset and market. (sponsored)

• Mamdani myth: Despite dire warnings from NYC’s real estate elite, the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani hasn’t triggered the industry exodus many feared. 

• Year in review: A year marked by cooling demand, canceled deals, and candid commentary, 2025 kept the hotel sector on edge.  

• Mega moves: New York’s biggest project filings of 2025 weren’t glitzy towers but a casino, two jails, a hospital, and a handful of strategic resi plays. 

• Penalty trap: A 40-year-old NYC tax law is hitting small owners and nonprofits with big fines over missed or misunderstood RPIE filings. 

• Market mood: RCLCO’s year-end survey shows rising confidence in the CRE outlook for 2026, with recession fears easing, interest rate expectations improving, and most sectors.

• Late but loyal: On-time rent payments in small, independently owned rentals rose to 83.7% in December—still below 2024 levels, but signs of recovery are building. 

• Concession creep: Rising rent concessions amid record supply are cutting into multifamily cash flows and exposing growing credit risk, especially in high-growth Sunbelt markets.

• First move: Dallas-based S2 Capital made its Chicago debut with the purchase of the 344-unit Ovaltine Apartments in Villa Park. 

• Luxury default: Witkoff and PIMCO have defaulted on over $400M tied to a Santa Monica luxury apartment project, with PIMCO holding nearly full control of the equity and investment decisions. 

• Aging upside: Senior housing cap rates are falling as investor demand grows, with most expecting further compression in 2026 amid strong rent growth and tight new supply.

• Queens trade: Wholesaler My Sales sold its Ridgewood, Queens industrial property at 75 Onderdonk Avenue for $28M, four years after acquiring it. 

• Portfolio refi: Seagis Property Group refinanced a six-property, 1.2M SF industrial portfolio in New Jersey and Florida with an $176M, eight-year fixed-rate loan. 

• Storage deal: BlackRock provided Basis Industrial with a $101.5M refinancing loan for a seven-property, climate-controlled self-storage portfolio across six states. 

• Houston buildout: Constellation Real Estate Partners is developing two speculative industrial projects in Houston totaling 658K SF across 49 acres.

• Bourbon blues: Jim Beam is halting production at its flagship Kentucky distillery due to site upgrades and tariff-related export declines. 

• Holiday sales: Visa reports U.S. holiday retail spending rose 4.2% YoY, with 73% of purchases made in-store. 

• Mall markdown: The Solomon Pond Mall in Marlborough, MA, once valued at $200M, has sold for just $8.5M, the latest in a string of deep-discount mall sales across New England. 

• Retail resilience: Investor confidence in retail remains strong heading into 2026, supported by stable vacancies, limited construction, and resilient consumer spending.

• Turnaround trouble: Red Lobster cut 10% of corporate staff as it struggles to renegotiate costly legacy leases that continue to weigh on profitability after bankruptcy.

• Global footprint: ING Group renewed and expanded its Manhattan lease at 1133 Avenue of the Americas, growing its footprint to nearly 154K SF. 

• Wall Street wins: In a banner year for CMBS, NYC office towers led the rebound with $14B in securitized loans, as lenders zeroed in on trophy assets. 

• CEO stays: BXP extended CEO Owen Thomas’s contract through 2029, with bonuses tied to stock gains, to ensure leadership stability during the office sector rebound.

• Trophy target: McKinsey & Co. is in talks to sublease 72K SF in Chicago’s Salesforce Tower, signaling continued demand for top-tier office space.

• On strike: Over the weekend, Colorado’s Telluride Ski Resort closed after ski patrollers walked off the job Saturday, following months of failed contract negotiations over pay

• French acquisition: French hotelier Philippe Le Guennec snapped up Miami Beach’s Kimpton Angler’s Hotel for $43.5M.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

CRE Trivia (Answer)🧠

Multifamily and industrial, which benefit fastest from lower borrowing costs and renewed investment activity.