Multifamily Permitting: Rebound or Reset?

A modest rebound in permits could signal a period of stability rather than a true recovery.

Nina Dale
March 27, 2026

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Good morning. Multifamily permitting is showing signs of life again after last year’s slowdown, but the recovery is far from uniform. The latest data reflects a market finding its footing amid ongoing challenges.

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Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,477.16

Pct Chg:
-1.74%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

766.40

Pct Chg:
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10Y Treasury

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SOFR

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*Data as of 3/26/2026 market close.

Permit Pulse

Multifamily Permitting: Rebound or Reset?

A modest rebound in multifamily permits is raising a key question: early recovery or just more of the same?

By the numbers: Multifamily permitting rose to 453,400 units in January 2026—up 5.4% from last year’s ~430,000 low, but still well below the 2023 peak of 650,000, signaling stabilization rather than a full rebound.

A history of plateaus: Permitting doesn’t always follow boom-bust cycles. The industry has seen long stretches of flat activity, averaging ~350,000 units annually from 1998–2007 and ~430,000 units from 2015–2021. Current trends suggest another steady phase may be emerging.

Mixed signals across markets: Roughly half of the top 150 U.S. metros saw permitting rise YoY, while the rest were flat or down; even top markets split, with declines in New York, Austin, and Atlanta and gains of 19%–48% elsewhere.

At the city level: Columbus, OH led all municipalities with more than 7,500 units permitted, followed closely by Los Angeles. Miami, Orlando, and Brooklyn also ranked among the most active permitting hubs.

Development headwinds remain: Despite strong housing demand, economic and capital market uncertainty will likely keep development constrained, slowing any near-term supply growth.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Uneven outlook: The permitting rebound is real but fragile. Current trends suggest a prolonged period of steady, uneven activity where capital constraints, not demand, will shape new supply.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

From model to market: Henry transforms your raw underwriting into investor-ready OMs, BOVs, and loan packages—built from your data, human-reviewed, and ready to send in minutes. (sponsored)
Migration magnet: Sun Belt states lead interstate migration gains while high-cost coastal markets continue to lose residents, reshaping housing demand.
Crypto collateral: Fannie Mae is moving toward accepting crypto-backed mortgages, marking a significant step in integrating digital assets into housing finance.
Burned by a GP? You’re not alone: Investbase helps real estate LPs share honest sponsor reviews and access exclusive deals — so your experience helps protect the next investor’s capital. (sponsored)
AI pushback: Growing opposition to AI data centers is reaching Congress, potentially slowing the expansion of this fast-growing CRE sector.
Cooling cashout: KKR’s sale of its data center cooling unit underscores strong investor demand and big returns tied to AI infrastructure.
Debt rebound: CRE debt markets closed 2025 on a stronger footing, with improved liquidity signaling a pickup in financing activity.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Price convergence: A narrowing bid-ask spread is helping unlock stalled multifamily transactions, bringing buyers and sellers closer to agreement.
SBL gap: A pullback by Freddie Mac’s small-balance loan program could tighten financing options for smaller multifamily investors.
Luxury leverage: A high-end restaurant is entering the affordable housing debate, spotlighting tensions between development and community needs.

🏭 Industrial

Plateau phase: Industrial fundamentals are stabilizing as rent growth cools and vacancies rise slightly following a prolonged boom.
Power crunch: Data center development is increasingly constrained by power availability, reshaping where and how projects get built.
Cap compression: Industrial net lease cap rates remain relatively low, reflecting continued investor demand despite market normalization.
Cold divide: The cold storage sector is splitting between high-demand modern facilities and outdated assets struggling to compete.

🏬 RETAIL

Retail rally: Retail sales are projected to grow 4.4% this year, underscoring continued consumer strength despite economic uncertainty.
Plano pivot: A major Plano mall redevelopment is moving forward regardless of the Dallas Stars’ involvement, signaling developer commitment.
Aldi expansion: Aldi is rapidly expanding in Phoenix, backfilling vacant big-box spaces and boosting retail occupancy.
Tenant turmoil: A Charlotte entertainment complex sale could displace tenants, highlighting ongoing instability in certain retail assets.

🏢 OFFICE

Pressure points: Office fundamentals remain under pressure as vacancies rise and demand stays muted, signaling a prolonged sector reset.
Selloff signal: The U.S. government’s sale of a major D.C. office building underscores shifting space needs and ongoing downsizing.
Discount deal: A Boston office asset drawing a $95M lender bid highlights continued pricing pressure and distress in the sector.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Experience capital: Institutional investors are pouring $220M into upscale event spaces, betting on demand for flexible, experience-driven venues.
Room reset: FIFA is cutting hotel room blocks for World Cup host cities, easing earlier expectations of massive lodging demand.
Membership model: Hotels are increasingly blending private club memberships with lodging, targeting travelers seeking exclusivity and community.

A MESSAGE FROM BULLPEN