CRE Capital Markets Gain Momentum Heading Into 2026

Refis are surging, institutional buyers are back, and CBRE sees double-digit deal growth ahead.

Jordan B.
November 07, 2025

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Good morning. Refinancing is driving a major uptick in CRE lending, while capital markets show the first signs of real stability in years. Could 2026 be the turning point?

Today’s issue is brought to you by LendingOne—discover how Build-to-Rent is creating new growth channels for multifamily operators.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,720.32

Pct Chg:
-01.12%

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

757.54

Pct Chg:
-0.35%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.091%

Pct Chg:
-0.066

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

4.19%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 11/06/2025 market close.

Deal Revival

CRE Capital Markets Gain Momentum Heading Into 2026

Lower rates, stronger fundamentals, and rising deal activity are setting the stage for a more confident close to 2025—and a bullish setup for 2026.

Refis drive volume: CRE loan originations rose 48% YoY through Q3 to $587B, up from $395B in 2024, per Newmark. Refinancings accounted for 55% of that volume, driven by falling rates and a wave of maturing debt. Office and retail led the rebound, with originations up 77% and 65%, respectively.

Lenders ramp up: Bank lending jumped 85% year-over-year, while CMBS issuance rose 37%, led by single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) deals making up over half of originations. Insurance and agency lenders also gained momentum, with volumes up 29% and 41%, respectively.

Sales activity rebounds: Investment sales rose 19% year-over-year and 15% from Q2, reaching $350B through Q3—still 11% below pre-pandemic levels. About two-thirds of deals were under $100M, as pricing gaps linger. Office and retail led gains, with sales up 25% and 29%, though pricing remains tight in multifamily and industrial amid rent growth challenges.

Institutional buyers return: In a sign of renewed confidence, institutional capital is reentering the office space. In New York and San Francisco, institutional buyers now account for nearly 40% of office deals, up from just 9% in 2023.

Momentum into 2026: CBRE’s Henry Chin expects 16–17% transaction volume growth by year-end, with double-digit gains continuing in 2026. Unlike past recoveries led by macro shifts, this cycle is driven by operational strength like leasing momentum and solid fundamentals.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Turning point: CRE capital markets have regained their footing. Lower rates, stronger refi activity, and growing institutional interest are pointing to a broader recovery—just in time for what could be a breakout year in 2026.

TOGETHER WITH LENDINGONE

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Prospecting powerhouse: LoanBase arms CRE brokers with data-rich refinancing leads and automated outreach tools to turn early loan insights into closed deals—faster. (sponsored)
Developer win: NYC voters passed three measures to fast-track housing projects and curb council vetoes, giving developers a win amid political headwinds.
Trump empire: Trump may be eyeing a Nashville project—his first U.S. real estate move in years.
Leadership offer: Kennedy Wilson received a $1.5B buyout offer from its CEO and partners to take the company private at a 38% premium.
Capital inflows: TPG closed its $2.1B Real Estate Credit Opportunities Fund—exceeding targets and delivering double-digit returns.
Ripple effect: CRE investors are eyeing Jersey City, Minneapolis, and Seattle as election results shape expectations around rent policy and regulatory environments.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Pricing pressure: U.S. apartment rents declined for the third straight month in October 2025 amid falling occupancy, with the South and West regions hit hardest.
Distress hunt: Former TruAmerica exec Matt Ferrari has launched PXV Multifamily with backing from BroadVail Capital to acquire $2B in “mismanaged” apartment assets.
Valuation evolution: As market volatility rises, DCF modeling is replacing direct cap as the go-to valuation method.
Safety debate: A vote on Houston’s proposed registry of high-risk apartment buildings was delayed after pushback from landlords and legal concerns.
Apartment appeal: Multifamily defied expectations in 2025 with over 725,000 units absorbed by midyear, as single-family unaffordability pushed renters into apartments.
Management merger: Akam has acquired Orsid New York, adding 260 Manhattan residential buildings to its portfolio.

🏭 Industrial

Data tradeoff: As institutional investors rush to capitalize on the $550B data center boom, they face a growing conflict between high-return potential and rising emissions.
Hidden goldmine: AI and data center growth are fueling a boom in industrial outdoor storage, with rents up 123% and institutional investors rushing into the once-overlooked sector.
Studio shift: With film and TV production plummeting in Georgia, some Atlanta-area studio owners are pivoting to new uses, like indoor amusement parks and industrial tenants.
Niche bet: Bluecrest Capital Advisors is targeting supply-constrained small bay industrial assets in the Southeast, betting on value-add opportunities in overlooked segments.
Power politics: Virginia’s 2025 elections revealed growing voter backlash against data centers over energy use and land impact.

🏬 RETAIL

Retail response: Amazon raised prices more than Walmart and Target in response to tariff-driven costs, especially in discretionary categories.
Retail revival: Retail CRE investment surged 43% in Q3 2025, driven by strong fundamentals, Sunbelt market growth, and renewed occupier demand.
Flagship flip: TMG Partners is teaming with Macy’s to redevelop its 600K SF Union Square flagship, exploring retail, hotel, or housing options.
Mall miss: PREIT and Simon missed the loan payoff for Philly’s struggling Springfield Mall, now flagged as non-performing and likely headed to special servicing.
Outlet upside: Tanger raised its 2025 guidance after posting record leasing activity, rising sales per square foot, and acquiring its sixth new center in under two years.

🏢 OFFICE

TI tightrope: Landlords are scaling back tenant improvement spending amid rising costs and soft office demand.
Studio slump: Hudson Pacific posted a $136M Q3 loss, blaming low studio occupancy and the deconsolidation of its Sunset Glenoaks project.
Slow climb: Chicago office use is ticking up, but hybrid norms and tenant caution keep it behind other major markets.
Pricey repairs: Dallas may redevelop or sell City Hall as repair costs soar to $345M, opening the door to relocation or new uses.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Keys recap: A newly renovated Hilton-branded resort in the Florida Keys secured $54M in bridge financing from Peachtree Group.
Event horizon: Facing revenue dips and soft demand in key travel segments, Summit Hotel Properties is betting on special events and renovated assets to revive performance in 2026.
Globe trotter: Choice Hotels boosted its 2025 outlook, driven by strong international growth and expectations of event-driven U.S. demand.

📈 CHART OF THE DAY

U.S. adults cite the cost of living—especially housing and everyday goods—as their top economic concerns, far outweighing worries about energy prices or job availability.