- Texas net domestic migration fell to 67,000, the lowest since 2005.
- Population growth is slowing faster in Texas than nearly anywhere else except Florida.
- CRE sectors may see less demand as new arrivals and immigration levels drop.
- North Carolina overtook Texas for highest net inward migration.
Migration Downturn Hits Texas
According to the NY Times, Texas, long seen as America’s fastest-growing state, is experiencing a sharp drop-off in migration from other parts of the US. New Census Bureau estimates show net domestic migration totaled just 67,000 in the year ending June 2025, down from nearly 219,000 three years earlier—a two-decade low for Texas migration trends. The Lone Star State now trails North Carolina, which saw 84,000 net newcomers from other states over the same period.
CRE Implications in Slower Growth
The slowdown in Texas migration trends may have tangible effects on commercial real estate. Major growth markets like Dallas, Houston, and Austin have relied on inward migration to fuel demand for office, industrial, and multifamily product. Fewer new arrivals could mean slowing absorption rates and softened rent growth, particularly as immigration to Texas also fell sharply, adding 167,500 new residents in the latest period—less than half the prior year. The trend mirrors broader patterns emerging across other Sunbelt markets, where previously fast-growing metros are now seeing migration momentum taper.
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Factors Behind the Shift
Experts cite several reasons for changing Texas migration trends. Job creation is slowing, and affordable housing has become scarcer, in part due to high property taxes. The state’s traditional appeal—lower costs and bigger homes—is waning compared to prior years. Nationwide, a drop in immigration following new federal policies has compounded this trend, leading to slower growth across the South and reversing regional population dynamics.
What CRE Stakeholders Should Watch
While Texas remains a top migration destination on a national scale, its growth edge is shrinking. Lower inflows may offer a breather for strained infrastructure but could pressure sectors that depend on rapid tenant and worker population increases. CRE professionals are monitoring Texas migration trends closely as the state transitions from hyper-growth to steady, more subdued expansion.
