Tariffs and Tax Refunds Drive Surge in Retail Foot Traffic

Recent data from pass_by shows in-store foot traffic accelerating for the second straight week in April, with a 6.1% year-over-year gain — nearly double the prior week’s increase, according to Commercial Search. The surge is being attributed to multiple factors, including early buying ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price hikes.

What’s Driving The Spike

• Tariff anxiety: Consumers are pulling forward purchases of discretionary and import-heavy items like jewelry and apparel.
• Tax refunds: Average refunds are up 3.6% year-over-year, putting more disposable income into the hands of shoppers.
• Holiday effects: The Easter holiday spurred a notable bump in grocery and superstore traffic.

Category Highlights

• Specialty food store visits jumped 36.8% YoY.
• Apparel traffic rose 7.2%, while jewelry saw a 14.9% increase.
• Electronics and furnishings, however, posted YoY declines, potentially due to holiday-related store closures.

Expert Views

While some analysts caution against over-attributing the increase to tariffs, others say the consumer response is strategic and signals a broader behavioral shift.

“It’s clear that shoppers aren’t just reacting to tariffs — they’re anticipating them,” said James Ewen of pass_by. Doug Ressler from Yardi added that physical store visits also spur impulse buying, compounding the effects.

Why It Matters

The data points to a more nuanced retail recovery, where consumer sentiment is influenced by both economic policy and seasonal spending. If tariffs take effect, a temporary dip in demand could follow this front-loaded activity, reshaping how retailers and landlords plan for the coming quarters.