Tariffs and Tax Refunds Drive Surge in Retail Foot Traffic

Retailers report a spike in store traffic as shoppers rush to buy discretionary goods ahead of tariffs and fueled by larger tax refunds.

April 30, 2025

Nina Dale

Retail foot traffic rose 6.1% year-over-year for the week ending April 20, fueled by rising tax refunds, pre-tariff buying, and the Easter holiday.
Specialty food, apparel, and jewelry stores led growth, with some categories seeing double-digit increases in traffic.
Experts say tariffs are prompting consumers to accelerate purchases ahead of potential price hikes, though some analysts argue broader economic factors are at play.

Key Takeaways

Recent data from pass_by shows in-store foot traffic accelerating for the second straight week in April, with a 6.1% year-over-year gain — nearly double the prior week’s increase, according to Commercial Search. The surge is being attributed to multiple factors, including early buying ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price hikes.

What’s Driving The Spike

Tariff anxiety: Consumers are pulling forward purchases of discretionary and import-heavy items like jewelry and apparel.
Tax refunds: Average refunds are up 3.6% year-over-year, putting more disposable income into the hands of shoppers.
Holiday effects: The Easter holiday spurred a notable bump in grocery and superstore traffic.

Category Highlights

Specialty food store visits jumped 36.8% YoY.
Apparel traffic rose 7.2%, while jewelry saw a 14.9% increase.
Electronics and furnishings, however, posted YoY declines, potentially due to holiday-related store closures.

Expert Views

While some analysts caution against over-attributing the increase to tariffs, others say the consumer response is strategic and signals a broader behavioral shift.

“It’s clear that shoppers aren’t just reacting to tariffs — they’re anticipating them,” said James Ewen of pass_by. Doug Ressler from Yardi added that physical store visits also spur impulse buying, compounding the effects.

Why It Matters

The data points to a more nuanced retail recovery, where consumer sentiment is influenced by both economic policy and seasonal spending. If tariffs take effect, a temporary dip in demand could follow this front-loaded activity, reshaping how retailers and landlords plan for the coming quarters.