- Rent control could reduce Massachusetts property values by $300B over 10 years.
- Municipalities face a potential 7.5% to 18% drop in property tax revenues.
- Boston’s property values may shrink 9% in three years, causing a $160M budget gap.
- The proposed measure would cap annual rent increases to 5% with some exemptions.
Study Estimates Major Impact
Bisnow reports that a new study from the Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis warns of major economic fallout from rent control. The report estimates the proposed Massachusetts ballot measure could cut statewide property values by $300B within the next decade.
The Greater Boston Real Estate Board commissioned the analysis. Researchers warn the measure could also shrink municipal tax bases across the state. If voters approve the proposal this fall, cities and towns could face significant revenue losses.
Key Provisions and Local Effects
The ballot initiative would allow cities and towns to cap annual rent increases at 5% across all 351 Massachusetts municipalities. However, the proposal includes exemptions for owner-occupied buildings with up to four units. It also exempts newly constructed housing for its first 10 years.
Urban areas would likely feel the impact most. In Boston, the study forecasts property values could fall 9% within three years. That decline could reduce the city’s budget by about $160M. The potential budget pressure comes as federal office lease cancellations already disrupt the state’s commercial property outlook. Meanwhile, smaller cities could face even steeper losses over time. Chelsea, Everett, and Revere could see property values drop between 15% and 27% over the next decade.
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Industry and Political Response
Groups like Housing for Massachusetts argue the measure threatens homeowners, small landlords, and renters, citing the study’s warning on property tax shortfalls. The group recently filed a complaint to the state Supreme Judicial Court, challenging the measure’s constitutional validity. Governor Maura Healey has opposed the proposal, suggesting it has already stalled development, while Boston Mayor Michelle Wu supports it but has called for legislative alternatives.
What’s Next
The Keep Massachusetts Home coalition, led by Homes for All Massachusetts, secured enough signatures to get rent control onto the ballot. While advocates say unchecked rent hikes risk more harm for renters, opposition groups stress the study’s dire forecast for property values and municipal finances. Early polling suggests broad support for some rent increase limit, setting up a high-stakes debate ahead of the vote.
