Oil Prices Survey Signals Market Uncertainty

Survey Reveals Shifting Oil Price Outlook

Trepp reports that oil prices surged in recent weeks amid Middle East tensions. Spot prices climbed above $100 per barrel and increased market volatility. Meanwhile, a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas captures how more than 100 energy executives view these trends.

The survey shows most executives expect oil prices to partially normalize by the end of 2026. They project an average price of $73 per barrel. This estimate exceeds last quarter’s forecast but remains far below current spot prices. As a result, many executives believe the recent surge will not last.

Uncertainty and Volatility Cloud Near-Term Projections

The breadth of near-term forecasts has widened, with six-month expectations for oil prices now ranging from $50 to $150 per barrel. This marks a meaningful increase in perceived uncertainty and introduces a higher risk premium for markets and CRE stakeholders, echoing how recent energy-driven market shocks have already disrupted interest rate expectations across the economy.

Long-term projections remain relatively stable. Five-year oil prices are forecast to reach $79 per barrel, only slightly higher than previous estimates, indicating executives still see current volatility as a temporary shock rather than a structural market shift.

CRE Implications: Managing Elevated Risks

For commercial real estate, the oil prices survey results suggest a period of elevated—though potentially transitory—cost and financing pressure. Higher near-term energy costs may boost inflation and lift borrowing costs across the sector.

While most firms report stable drilling plans and production, rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty keep the market on alert. The speed of energy market stabilization will determine how lasting CRE cost impacts will be.