NYC Real Estate Resilience Defies Predictions

NYC real estate markets remain robust despite initial fears of mass resident departures under Mayor Mamdani.
Manhattan office leasing reached 10.6M SF in Q3 2025, the strongest pace since 2014.
Prime retail availability hit a record low, and luxury home contracts rose 26% in November 2025.
Political uncertainty exists but fundamentals and investor sentiment are stable.

Key Takeaways

Political Shift, Market Stability

Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration as New York City mayor brought policy proposals that worried many in commercial real estate, says Globe St. Early polling suggested up to 2M residents might consider leaving if Mamdani won, fueling concerns over property values and long-term demand. Yet, market indicators reveal continued strength instead of exodus.

Leasing and Retail Outperform

Office momentum in Manhattan remains notably strong. New leasing activity reached 10.6M SF in the third quarter, according to Savills, positioning the sector for its best annual showing in over a decade. In retail, JLL reports that space availability in prime corridors is at its lowest since 2017—a testament to stubborn tenant demand.

Luxury Housing Defies Gravity

The luxury residential segment saw robust activity as well. Contracts for Manhattan homes priced above $4M jumped 26% month-over-month in November. Year-over-year, home sales, prices, and rents have climbed, defying dire predictions and reinforcing New York’s draw to high-net-worth buyers. Continued Wall Street bonuses are also supporting this segment despite higher taxes.

Why It Matters

Despite political shifts, the evidence points to sustained NYC real estate momentum. Analysts and brokers report that fears of widespread departures were overstated. Behind the scenes, many commercial players are reassessing how they allocate capital and engage with city leadership, reflecting a broader recalibration of CRE strategies in the wake of the election. Cooperation with state leadership may temper policy changes, but for now, strong fundamentals—across office, retail, and luxury housing—keep New York positioned as a resilient global market, able to withstand political and economic uncertainty.