- A Trump administration nominee has floated reducing the BLS jobs report frequency from monthly to quarterly, citing concerns about revisions.
- CRE professionals say fewer reports would increase uncertainty and slow decision-making in leasing, underwriting, and investment.
- Industry leaders stress the need for transparency and argue that revisions are a natural, manageable part of the process.
A Cornerstone Of CRE Decision-Making
Bisnow reports that the BLS jobs report is a critical reference point for commercial real estate, shaping forecasts around demand drivers, leasing terms, and investment strategy. If released less frequently, many in the industry worry it would remove a key layer of visibility in an already uncertain market.
“If you look at only one thing in the economy to understand real estate data, you should be looking at the monthly jobs report,” MSCI Executive Director Jim Costello said. “The US economy is one of the most transparent in terms of economic information, which makes it easy for investors.”
The Proposal
The idea originated with E.J. Antoni, chief economist at The Heritage Foundation and President Trump’s pick to lead the BLS after he dismissed former Commissioner Erika McEntarfer earlier this month. Antoni suggested shifting to quarterly releases to reduce the frequency of revisions, which he characterized as a “serious problem” during a recent interview.
The White House has since clarified that Antoni’s comments do not reflect official BLS policy, but CRE leaders remain uneasy given the administration’s willingness to disrupt norms.
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CRE’s Dependence On Jobs Data
Real estate players use the monthly employment snapshots in different ways:
- Brokers rely on them to adjust leasing terms and concessions in real time.
- Investors use them to identify regional strengths and sector performance.
- Sectors like hospitality depend heavily on the data given their exposure to rapid employment shifts.
“A lot can change in the labor market over the course of a few months, especially during periods of dislocation or deterioration,” said Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO.
Alternatives And Limitations
Some CRE professionals already supplement BLS reports with private-sector sources such as ADP payroll data, LinkedIn employment insights, or cellphone location analytics. But replacing the BLS reports outright would require costly overhauls.
“You’re switching to some new system,” Costello said. “It’s not going to perfectly replicate what was there before.”
Revisions: Flaw Or Feature
Antoni framed the regular revisions as evidence of flaws, but economists argue they are a necessary part of gathering better data.
“Surveying all American businesses on a monthly basis is virtually impossible,” Severino said. “As the BLS obtains more and better information, it updates its findings. Historically, revisions tend to be relatively minor.”
Instead of cutting frequency, Costello suggested investing more resources into the BLS to strengthen its surveying practices.
Why It Matters
Transparency in US economic data is one of the nation’s biggest competitive advantages in attracting global investment, experts say.
“The government here has always been helpful in terms of providing a stable regulatory framework and many data sources,” said Wharton’s Fernando Ferreira. “It gives more certainty for the whole market.”
For now, industry leaders do not expect the monthly reports to disappear entirely, but even the prospect of change has raised concerns about deal flow.
“People act when there’s clarity around what they’re doing,” Costello said. “If you remove clarity, you reduce action.”
