- US CRE investment volume rose 16% year-over-year in Q3 to nearly $124B, driven by a strong September showing.
- September alone saw $42B in transactions — a 19% YoY increase — with office deals leading the surge.
- JPMorgan projects Q3 transactions could hit $140B after revisions, suggesting a 31% annual increase.
- Office, retail, industrial, and hotel sectors all posted YoY gains, while multifamily remained the only laggard.
Q3 Beats the Forecasts
Bisnow reports that US commercial real estate investment volume surged in Q3 2025, outpacing expectations thanks to a strong September. According to MSCI Real Assets, $42B in deals closed in September — a 19% increase over the same month last year.
This momentum pushed total Q3 investment volume to nearly $124B, a 16% year-over-year jump, per JPMorgan’s CRE transaction report. The actual number may rise even further as historical data suggests revisions could increase totals by as much as 30%.
Revisions Could Push Q3 Past $140B
With previous months like July revised up by over 30%, JPMorgan analysts estimate Q3 volume could eventually hit $140B — representing a 31% year-over-year increase. This would far exceed the firm’s projected 18% growth in global capital markets revenue.
Debt origination also played a role in the quarter’s strength, contributing to an optimistic outlook for CRE service company earnings.
Sector Breakdown: Office Leads the Way
Office assets led September’s rally, with transaction volume up 69% YoY — the sector’s strongest performance in years. The jump coincides with the first national vacancy rate decline since 2019, with Q3 office vacancy dropping 5 basis points to 22.5%, per JLL.
Other sectors also saw solid gains:
- Retail: +28% YoY
- Industrial: +25% YoY
- Hotels: +15% YoY
- Multifamily: -5% YoY (the only sector to see a decline).
Get Smarter about what matters in CRE
Stay ahead of trends in commercial real estate with CRE Daily – the free newsletter delivering everything you need to start your day in just 5-minutes
Cap Rates Edge Up Slightly
The average cap rate across all transactions rose to 6.38% in September, up 4 basis points from August. Multifamily saw the biggest jump (+14 bps to 5.63%), while industrial cap rates fell 25 bps to 6.1%.
Why It Matters
The Q3 rebound indicates renewed investor appetite, especially in office and industrial assets. If revisions play out as expected, the quarter could set a new post-pandemic benchmark for CRE investment activity — signaling a stronger-than-anticipated close to 2025.
What’s Next
All eyes are now on Q4. With the Fed holding rates steady and sentiment shifting more positively, further gains in transaction volume and debt activity are likely — potentially setting the stage for a stronger 2026.
