- Hurricane risk now affects over 33M US homes, with $11.7T in reconstruction value tied to wind and flood damage.
- Emerging danger zones include Virginia Beach, Charleston, and Wilmington, where homes stay on the market longer due to rising risk and insurance costs.
- Relocating Florida residents may be moving into equally vulnerable areas, creating new pockets of unprepared homeowners.
- Insurance pricing and availability are reshaping real estate trends, especially in regions previously considered low-risk.
Storms Without Borders
A new report by analytics firm Cotality paints a broader—and more concerning—picture of hurricane risk in the US While Florida remains ground zero, the impact of hurricanes is increasingly being felt in places that were once considered safe bets, reports GlobeSt.
In total, 33.1M homes face a moderate or higher risk from hurricane-force winds, and 6.4M from flooding—figures that now include cities not traditionally viewed as hurricane-prone. For instance, Virginia Beach, Charleston (SC), and Wilmington (NC) collectively host over 656K homes at flooding risk during a major storm event.
A Shifting Coastal Reality
According to Cotality’s VP of insurance product marketing, Maiclaire Bolton-Smith, insurance pricing is beginning to reflect these shifting dynamics. “The coastline is evolving,” she noted, “and risk is expanding both in reach and regularity.”
This evolution is creating ripple effects in real estate. Homes in Virginia Beach are sitting on the market 32% longer than the national average, while Wilmington homes take 19% longer to sell. These delays are tied to buyer concerns over risk and rising insurance premiums, which in some cases can price buyers out of areas previously considered lower-risk.
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State-By-State Exposure
Florida still leads the pack with 8.2M homes at moderate or greater hurricane risk and an RCV of $2.3T. But Texas and North Carolina follow closely behind:
- Texas: 4.8M homes at risk | $1.4T RCV
- North Carolina: 3.4M homes | $1T RCV
- New Jersey: 2.3M homes | $1.1T RCV
- New York: 2.2M homes | $1.2T RCV
Hurricane vulnerability extends beyond Florida and the Gulf, reaching much of the Atlantic seaboard, including less-prepared coastal areas.
Migration And Misperception
As Florida sees a dip in mortgage activity, many residents are relocating to states like Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas, and South Carolina—a trend that could carry unintended consequences. Many of these destinations are equally vulnerable to storm-related damage, particularly in coastal and low-lying areas.
Cotality warns that a “false sense of security” in these markets could leave buyers financially exposed and underprepared. Flood zone home discounts are often offset by soaring insurance costs and limited availability, reducing overall buyer savings.
What’s Next
As extreme weather becomes more frequent, expect hurricane risk to play an increasingly central role in property valuations, insurance underwriting, and migration patterns. For buyers, insurers, and developers alike, proactive adaptation will be key in navigating this expanding risk landscape.
