- Holiday retail sales grew 4.53% year over year in November, aligning with the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecasts despite nearly flat monthly gains.
- Online and discretionary categories led the growth, with digital goods up nearly 15% and sporting goods and clothing stores posting strong annual gains.
- Shifting consumer behavior—including a delay in Cyber Monday spending—contributed to some softer month-over-month results in November.
- NRF expects total holiday sales to surpass $1T, with full-year US retail sales projected to reach up to $5.48T in 2025.
Holiday Sales Stay In Line With Forecasts
Retailers appear to be on pace for a solid holiday season, reports GlobeSt. November sales rose 4.53% compared to the same time last year, keeping pace with expectations from the National Retail Federation. While spending only edged up 0.12% from October, the annual increase suggests consumers are spending strategically heading into the holidays.
Matthew Shay, NRF’s CEO, noted that this year’s late Thanksgiving may have shifted some online spending into December, especially for shoppers holding out for Cyber Monday deals. Still, the overall trend remains healthy.
Digital, Sports, And Apparel Lead Gains
Among retail sectors, digital products stood out with a 14.8% year-over-year increase, even with a slight dip from October. Sporting goods and hobby stores saw nearly 9% annual growth, while clothing and accessories rose 8.16% year over year.
Other sectors posted mixed results:
- Grocery and beverage stores rose 3.89% annually and 0.74% monthly.
- General merchandise increased 3.1% year over year but slipped 0.73% month to month.
- Electronics and appliances ticked up just 1% annually and fell nearly 3% monthly.
- Furniture and home goods were flat, while building and garden supply stores saw the sharpest drop, down over 9% year over year.
Get Smarter about what matters in CRE
Stay ahead of trends in commercial real estate with CRE Daily – the free newsletter delivering everything you need to start your day in just 5-minutes
Retail Sales Forecast To Top $1T
NRF forecasts a 3.7%–4.2% holiday sales increase through December, pushing total spending above $1T.
Looking at the bigger picture, US retail sales for all of 2025 are expected to grow between 2.7% and 3.7%, potentially reaching $5.48T.
Why It Matters
Despite inflationary pressures and cautious spending, consumers are showing resilience. The continued strength of online and discretionary categories highlights a consumer base that is value-conscious. Shoppers are still willing to spend, especially when deals align with demand.
Retailers are using competitive pricing and targeted inventory strategies to stay on track this holiday season.
