Fed Vote Deadlock Could Freeze Interest Rates in December

Fed vote could end in a rare 6–6 tie, leaving interest rates unchanged as policymakers remain split on future monetary policy.

November 26, 2025

Valerija I.

The Federal Reserve could face a tie vote at its December meeting, a first in the central bank’s history, as its 12-member rate-setting committee appears evenly split.
The possibility reflects a growing divide over whether to cut rates again, with dovish voices pushing for easing and hawkish members urging restraint.
If a 6–6 deadlock occurs, the federal funds rate would remain unchanged by default, since the FOMC has no formal tiebreaking mechanism.

Key Takeaways

The First Potential Tie in Fed History

According to Globe St, for the first time ever, the Federal Reserve may be on the verge of a tie vote. According to analysts, the upcoming December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could end in a 6–6 split — a historic outcome that reflects sharp divisions among policymakers. The reason? An unusual combination of an even number of voting members and a deep split in views on whether to continue monetary easing.

How the FOMC Is Split

Currently, the FOMC includes 12 voting members: the seven-member Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four regional Fed bank presidents, who rotate annually. While this structure ensures broad geographic representation, it also opens the door to a tied vote — a rare but now plausible outcome.

So far, two camps have emerged. On one side, Governors Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran, and Christopher Waller — all appointed under the Trump administration — have publicly supported further rate cuts. Additionally, New York Fed President John Williams has signaled a willingness to consider more easing. Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lisa Cook typically align with Williams, which could give the dovish camp six votes.

On the other side, regional presidents Susan Collins (Boston), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), and Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City) have all expressed skepticism about cutting rates too soon. Likewise, Governors Michael Barr and Philip Jefferson have urged a more cautious approach. Together, this hawkish group also holds six votes.

Why This Matters

If the December meeting ends in a tie, the outcome is straightforward: the current federal funds rate would remain unchanged. This is because the FOMC has no formal mechanism to break a deadlock. Unlike other decision-making bodies, the Fed does not grant the chair a tie-breaking vote. Therefore, policy would remain on hold by default.

Historically, such close votes are extremely rare. According to Natixis CIB Americas, only three rate decisions have ever passed by a single vote, with the most recent occurring in 1973. Furthermore, the dissent seen in July and October — when multiple members disagreed with the committee’s decision — highlights just how fractured the Fed has become this year.

Looking Ahead

Chair Powell has already acknowledged the uncertainty. In late October, he stated that “a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion.” His remarks reflect growing tensions within the FOMC, which may soon reach a breaking point — or, in this case, a standstill. Recent commentary from Fed officials has only added to market speculation about a policy shift in the coming months, particularly as broader economic indicators suggest potential easing ahead.

If the vote does end in a tie, it would mark an unprecedented moment in Fed history and signal just how divided the outlook has become. In the meantime, markets, investors, and policymakers alike will be watching closely, as December’s decision may shape the path of monetary policy heading into 2026.