- Nearly $936B in commercial real estate loans are now scheduled to mature in 2026, pushing the industry’s debt peak out two years.
- Loan modifications have temporarily eased distress, but they’ve added to future refinancing burdens.
- New bank reporting rules may obscure risk just as the market faces rising rates and tighter credit conditions.
The Deadline Moves—But Not The Danger
The commercial real estate sector has managed to push back a mountain of maturing debt, reports GlobeSt. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, a significant portion of CRE loans once due in 2024 and 2025 have been extended, with the largest maturity wave now projected for 2026. That year is expected to bring $936B in maturities—almost 19% more than 2025’s revised estimate.
Extensions Offer Breathing Room
A combination of rising rates, falling asset values, and tighter lending conditions made refinancing difficult over the past two years. Rather than force distressed sales, lenders have opted to extend terms—buying time but not solving the underlying issue. For now, the strategy appears to be containing visible distress: S&P reports that delinquency rates ticked down slightly in Q2 2025 to 1.52%.
Cost Of Capital Keeps Climbing
The average interest rate for CRE loans issued this year was 6.24%, a notable jump from the 4.76% average on older debt coming due. That gap has made refinancing more expensive, further incentivizing extensions and workouts.
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Shift In Lending Landscape
Traditional banks still hold a majority of the loans maturing in the near term, making up about 60% of the 2025 total. But S&P expects banks to scale back as private credit firms continue expanding into commercial real estate finance. In some cases, banks are partnering with these firms to stay active while offloading risk.
Less Transparency Ahead
Upcoming changes to loan disclosure rules will allow modified loans to fall off bank reporting requirements after one year. Some lenders could begin applying the change as soon as Q4 2025. This could make it harder to monitor loan performance just as maturity volumes peak.
Long Tail Of Debt Risk
Even after 2026, commercial real estate faces elevated refinancing demands, with annual maturities expected to exceed $1T through 2030. While recent extensions have avoided a near-term crisis, the fundamental challenge of refinancing large volumes of higher-cost debt remains unresolved.
