- Christmas inflation rises 4.5% in 2025, outpacing the national CPI and driving up the cost of holiday gift-giving.
- Five Gold Rings jump 32.5%, the biggest price spike, driven by rising gold prices and investor demand for safe-haven assets.
- Labor-related gifts like dancers and drummers see 5.4% increase, reflecting ongoing wage pressures and service sector inflation.
- Total cost of all 364 gifts hits $218,542.98, with online shopping offering only slight relief due to shipping and packaging fees.
A Costly Chorus For 2025
As the holidays approach, the PNC Christmas Price Index (CPI) is sounding an expensive tune this year, reports IREI. This whimsical inflation gauge tracks the cost of the gifts from “The 12 Days of Christmas,” offering a festive snapshot of rising prices. The total price tag for those 12 gifts has reached $51,476.12, up 4.5% from 2024.
Launched in 1984, the index draws on real-world sources — from dance studios to hatcheries — and mirrors broader economic trends. In fact, this year’s increase outpaces the 3.0% rise in the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What’s Driving The Increase?
According to PNC Asset Management CIO Amanda Agati, labor costs and economic uncertainty are fueling this year’s uptick — not tariffs, as all of the gifts are domestically sourced. She added that “True Love’s list is all domestic,” underscoring rising US service and labor costs.
Gold prices surged, pushing Five Gold Rings up 32.5%, tracking a broader 45% rise in gold markets by October 31. The combination of inflation, a weaker US dollar, and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts drove investors toward precious metals. This increased demand raised costs for holiday buyers.
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Repeat Costs And Online Convenience
Buying the gifts once is expensive. But purchasing them every time they’re mentioned in the carol — all 364 times — costs $218,542.98, a 4.4% increase from last year. Even online shopping won’t save much: while online inflation is lower at 3.1%, elevated shipping and packaging fees bring the online total to $55,748.05.
Where Prices Held — And Where They Soared
Several items saw no price increase this year, including:
- Two Turtle Doves
- Three French Hens
- Four Calling Birds
- Seven Swans-a-Swimming
- Eight Maids-a-Milking
But not everything remained calm. The Pear Tree, home to the Partridge, rose 14.3%, mirroring ongoing increases in housing costs. Even as mortgage rates eased, land and labor expenses continue to push prices upward.
Performer-related gifts — from Ladies Dancing to Drummers Drumming — rose 5.4%, as labor shortages and wage hikes affect live entertainment and events.
Inflation Echoes Continue
This year’s core PNC CPI, excluding the notoriously volatile Swans, rose 6.1%, suggesting inflationary trends are lingering even if headline numbers appear more stable.
With the Fed shifting to a more dovish stance, the big question for 2026 will be whether inflation finally fades — or remains the “lump of coal in holiday stockings,” as Agati put it.
Looking Ahead
The PNC CPI may be playful, but it reflects real economic forces. Labor shortages and commodity prices continue to impact holiday spending and more. As inflation shows signs of persistence, the index continues to offer a unique lens into consumer sentiment and seasonal price trends.
