Q225 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

Cautious optimism is growing, but tight capital and policy risks are keeping CRE on edge.

Jordan B.
June 17, 2025

Together with

Good morning. Thank you to everyone who contributed to the Q2 2025 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index. This quarter’s report reveals a market cautiously leaning toward optimism, even as capital remains tight and policy headwinds persist.

Today’s issue is sponsored by PACE Loan Group—a smarter way to finance your next project.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500

GSPC

6,033.11

Pct Chg:
+0.94

FTSE NAREIT

FNER

767.75

Pct Chg:
-0.10%

10Y Treasury

TNX

4.422%

Pct Chg:
-0.032

SOFR

30-DAY AVERAGE

4.303%

Pct Chg:
-0.00

*Data as of 06/16/2025 market close.

Investor Sentiment

Q225 Burns + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index

The latest Q2 2025 JBREC + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index is in, offering a fresh look at investor sentiment across commercial real estate. Based on 530+ sector responses from almost 300 investors, the survey tracks shifting confidence in the market.

By the numbers: The headline index rose slightly to 56 in 2Q25, marking a modest expansion in investor sentiment. Multifamily and industrial remain the strongest, while office continues to lag, facing persistent structural challenges.

For context: Index values below 45 indicate a contracting commercial real estate (CRE) market, while those above 55 suggest expansion. Values between 45 and 55 reflect a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers.

Wait-and-see: 71% of commercial real estate investors are holding tight in 2Q25, the highest in the survey’s history. Most cite elevated interest rates and policy uncertainty as reasons for staying put. That said, 66% expect to increase exposure over the next 6 months, suggesting a wait-and-see strategy amid potential rate cuts.

Sources: John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC; CRE Daily (Data: May-25, Pub: Jun-25)

Policy pressure mounts: CRE investors are wary of policy shifts, with 56% expecting trade changes to harm the market and 52% anticipating a pullback in foreign capital, which could tighten liquidity in key markets.

Insurance costs skyrocket: Three-quarters of respondents reported double-digit increases in insurance costs, with 39% citing a +10% to +19% YoY jump. Cost pressures are uniform across asset classes and regions.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Big picture: Sentiment is shifting from survival to selective opportunity. Investors are cautiously optimistic about post-rate-cut recovery, but CRE faces high capital costs and policy uncertainty. The next 6 months could be pivotal for unlocking sidelined capital if rates, regulations, and refinancing risks don’t hinder progress.

🚨 Webinar: CRE Market Update – 2Q25 Fear and Greed Survey Results

Join us for a 30-minute data-packed live webinar of our latest Fear and Greed Survey. We’ll break down what’s driving investor sentiment across Multifamily, Industrial, Retail, and Office, including the latest in capital market conditions.

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✍️ Editor’s Picks

Webinar: Brad Johnson, CIO at Vintage Capital, breaks down how top allocators are underwriting MHP deals—and what still makes them compelling in today’s crowded market. (sponsored)
Family dynamics: Family offices are shifting from public markets to private equity, crypto, and collectibles to hedge risk and meet evolving UHNW demands.
World Cup warning: The 2026 World Cup could worsen US housing shortages as landlords convert rentals to short-term stays, driving up rents and displacing residents.
Miami heat: Miami remains the most competitive rental market in the US, driven by high demand, limited supply, and soaring lease renewals.
Market divide: Older South Florida condos are losing value amid costly repair mandates, while new luxury developments continue to thrive.
Seller surplus: A record gap of 500K more home sellers than buyers signals a cooling US housing market as high prices and rates deter demand.

🏘️ MULTIFAMILY

Southern slump: Heavy new supply pushed South region apartment occupancy to 94.8% in May, the lowest among US regions.
Senior squeeze: With occupancy above 89% and construction at record lows, the senior housing sector faces a growing mismatch between rising need and available units.
Rent controls: New York passed a first-in-the-nation bill banning rent-setting algorithms that coordinate pricing across landlords.
Texas strength: Houston topped the nation in net apartment demand behind New York, with Dallas close behind.
Tribeca refi: Vornado and Stellar secured a $675M refinance for Independence Plaza, locking in a fixed 5.84% rate to replace maturing debt.

🏭 Industrial

Rent split: Industrial rent growth is expected to diverge sharply between top and bottom US markets through 2029.
Going abroad: Rising tariffs are inflating data center costs and pushing some projects overseas.
Chicago buy: NorthPoint Development acquired an 11-building, 2.8 MSF industrial portfolio in suburban Chicago for $270M.

🏬 RETAIL

Succession strategy: David Simon remains at the helm of Simon Property Group while battling cancer, as his son Eli steps into a growing leadership role.
Shopping spotlight: USA TODAY’s 2025 list ranks the best US shopping centers for retail, dining, and entertainment experiences.
Pickleball y'all: CityPickle is building a $20M pickleball and padel complex in Boca Raton, tapping into rising demand.

🏢 OFFICE

RTO leaders: NYC and Miami lead the nation in return-to-office activity, with office visits down just 18–20% from pre-pandemic levels.
Tower financing: Uncommon Developers secured a ~$150M loan for the recently acquired Figueroa at Wilshire office tower in DTLA.
Loop bet: Real Capital Solutions is eyeing a steeply discounted purchase of 190 S. LaSalle, extending its $3.5B office buying spree.
AI footprint: OpenAI is hunting for up to 300K more SF in San Francisco, as AI firms drive renewed office demand across the city.

🏨 HOSPITALITY

Revival plan: COIMA and Eagle Hills will invest €200M to restore Venice’s Grand Hotel des Bains after resolving €54M in legacy debt.
Revenue tactics: Hoteliers are leaning into AI tools, digital marketing, and experience-based offerings to grow market share.

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📈 CHART OF THE DAY

Credit conditions remain tight across all CRE sectors, although investors across asset classes note a significant improvement in their ability to access capital compared to one year ago.